tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12381193749179876052024-03-14T01:49:17.044-07:00Social Dinamics / Economía Física y Dinámica SocialAproximación que busca fuentes para acercarse a la siguiente afirmacion del economista Lyndon Larouche:
"Una mera porción de la fuerza total suministrada a un proceso, en virtud de que se le eleva a una densidad de flujo energético suficiente, realiza más trabajo que el total de la fuerza suministrada cuando ésta se aplica con una densidad de flujo energético bastante inferior"Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-75126362201934323012013-09-01T09:28:00.002-07:002013-09-01T09:28:52.759-07:00Beurskrach 1929, mysterie ontrafeld?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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De wereld, en met name de Verenigde Staten, beleefde in de jaren twintig van de vorige eeuw een hoogconjunctuur. Als gevolg hiervan stegen de koersen van aandelen en andere effecten tot enorme hoogten, aandelen werden op de beurs veel meer waard dan redelijk was. De onderliggende economie was echter ongemerkt in kracht verminderd, zonder dat dit op de beurs tot uiting kwam. Beleggers verkeerden in euforie, en de prijzen van de aandelen werden steeds maar verder opgejaagd, dit tegen alle economische logica in. (1)</div>
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De oorzaak dat de Dow Jones naar ongekende hoogte steeg was mijns inziens de introductie op 1 oktober 1928 van een nieuwe berekening van de Dow; de introductie van de Dow-divisor, het uitbreiden van de dow van 20 naar 30 aandelen op 1 oktober 1928 en het splitsen van aandelen in de periode oktober 1928 – november 1929, de laatste fase van de versnellingsfase van de 2e industriele revolutie. Deze drie factoren zijn er de oorzaak van dat de Dow in de periode oktober 1928 tot september 1929 exponentieel is blijven stijgen (van 238 naar 381 punten), terwijl de onderliggende economie sterk in kracht was verminderd.</div>
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Transities</h4>
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Iedere productiefase, of iedere maatschappij of ander menselijk verschijnsel, doorloopt een zogenaamd transformatieproces. Transities zijn maatschappelijke transformatieprocessen, die tenminste één generatie beslaan. In dit artikel wil ik aan de hand van zo’n transitie aangeven, waar we met onze huidige maatschappij staan en wat voor gevolgen dat kan hebben voor de beursindexen.</div>
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Transities hebben de volgende eigenschappen (2):</div>
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<li style="line-height: 18px;">het betreft een structurele verandering van de (wereld)-maatschappij, of een complex deelsysteem daarvan;</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">er is sprake van op elkaar inwerkende en elkaar versterkende technologische, economische, ecologische, sociaal-culturele en institutionele ontwikkelingen op verschillende schaalniveaus;</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">het is de resultante van langzame veranderingen (ontwikkelingen in voorraden) en snelle dynamiek (stromen).</li>
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Een transitie ligt niet bij voorbaat vast, omdat er gedurende een veranderingsproces altijd sprake is van aanpassen aan, leren van, en inspelen op nieuwe situaties. Een transitie is dus geen wetmatigheid.</div>
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Vier transitiefasen</h4>
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(3)</div>
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<a class="hyperlink-image fancybox" href="http://historiek.net/wp-content/uploads-phistor1/2011/09/grommen-fig1-gr.jpg" rel="rel-gallery-12610" style="color: #d54e21; text-decoration: none;"><img class="alignright" src="http://historiek.net/wp-content/uploads-phistor1/2011/09/grommen-fig1.jpg" style="border: 0px; clear: right; float: right; height: auto; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-left: 20px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" title="Figuur 1: fasen van een transitie" /></a><span class="wp-caption-text" style="color: #666666; display: block; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;">Figuur 1: fasen van een transitie</span></div>
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In het algemeen beschrijven transities de S-curve en zijn vier transitiefasen te onderscheiden (zie ook figuur 1):</div>
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<li style="line-height: 18px;">een voorontwikkelingsfase van dynamisch evenwicht waarin de status-quo niet zichtbaar verandert;</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">een ‘take-off’-fase waarin het veranderingsproces op gang komt, doordat de toestand van het systeem begint te verschuiven;</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">een versnellingsfase waarin zichtbaar structurele veranderingen plaatsvinden door een cumulatie van op elkaar inspelende sociaal-culturele, economische, ecologische en institutionele veranderingen; in de versnellingsfase is sprake van collectieve leerprocessen, diffusie en processen van inbedding;</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">een stabilisatiefase waarin de snelheid van maatschappelijke verandering afneemt en al lerend een nieuw dynamisch evenwicht wordt bereikt.</li>
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Ook een productlevenscyclus en een bedrijfslevenscyclus beschrijven een S-curve. In dit geval is er nog een vijfde fase: de aftakelingsfase, waarin kosten stijgen door overcapaciteit en waarin een producent zich uiteindelijk terugtrekt uit de markt.</div>
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Als we de geschiedenis induiken, hebben in de laatste twee eeuwen drie ingrijpende transities, ook wel industriële revoluties genoemd, plaatsgevonden (4):</div>
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<li style="line-height: 18px;">De 1e industriële revolutie (1780 tot circa 1850); de stoommachine</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">De 2e industriële revolutie (1870 tot circa1930); electriciteit, olie en auto</li>
<li style="line-height: 18px;">De 3e industriële revolutie (1950 tot ….); computer en microprocessor</li>
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De Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is de oudste aandelenindex van de Verenigde Staten. Een select clubje journalisten van The Wall Street Journal beslist welke bedrijven deel uitmaken van invloedrijkste beursindex ter wereld. In tegenstelling tot de meeste andere indices is de Dow een prijsgewogen index. Het bepalen van de beursindexwaarden zoals de Dow en de weergave van deze index in historische grafieken zijn een perfecte manier om aan te geven in welke fase een industriële revolutie zich bevindt.</div>
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<img class="caption" src="http://historiek.net/wp-content/uploads-phistor1/2011/09/grommen-fig2-560.jpg" style="border: 0px; height: auto; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" title="Laatste revoluties en de Dow Jones" /><span class="wp-caption-text" style="color: #666666; display: block; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;">Laatste revoluties en de Dow Jones</span></div>
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Dow Jones-index (grafiek) was (is) een fata morgana</h4>
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In veel grafieken is de y-as een vaste eenheid, zoals kilo, meter, liter of euro. Bij de index-grafiek lijkt dit ook zo, want op de y-as wordt een eenheid in punten gebruikt. Niets is echter minder waar! Een index-punt is namelijk geen vaste eenheid in de tijd en je mag er dan ook historisch gezien geen enkele betekenis aan hechten.</div>
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Een index wordt berekend aan de hand van een mandje aandelen. Bij elke index gebeurt dat volgens een bepaalde formule en de uitkomst van de formule levert een aantal punten op. Een grote fout die veel mensen maken is, dat er waarde gehecht wordt aan deze grafieken. Deze grafieken zijn echter erg bedriegelijk.</div>
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De Dow wordt voor het eerst gepubliceerd in 1896. De index wordt berekend door de som van de aandelen te delen door twaalf:</div>
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<i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Dow-index_1896 = (x1 + x2+ ……….+x12) / 12</span></i></div>
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Een index wordt berekend aan de hand van een mandje aandelen. Bij elke index gebeurt dat volgens een bepaalde formule en als uitkomst krijg je dan een aantal punten. Dat mandje van aandelen wordt bij elke index echter regelmatig veranderd. Voor de nieuwe periode wordt dus de waarde van een ander mandje aandelen gemeten. Het is natuurlijk vreemd dat je de verschillende mandjes als zelfde eenheid projecteert. Na een periode van vijfentwintig jaar werd de waarde van een mandje met twaalf appels vergeleken met de waarde van een mandje dertig peren. Er zaten in 1929 nog maar twee van de twaalf oorspronkelijke bedrijven in de Dow.</div>
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Het meest vreemde is natuurlijk de steeds wijzigende samenstelling van het mandje. Over het algemeen is het zo dat bij het wijzigen van het mandje, bedrijven die in een stabilisatiefase of de aftakelingsfase van hun cyclus (“oud bloed”) zitten, uit het mandje gehaald worden. Bedrijven die in de ‘take-off’-fase of versnellingsfase van hun cyclus (“nieuw bloed”) zitten worden toegevoegd. De kans dat de index na de wijziging van het mandje en de formule stijgt, is dan natuurlijk vele malen groter dan dat de index gaat dalen. Daar hoef je geen kansberekening op los te laten, met name als deze methode wordt toegepast in de versnellingsfase van een transitie. In 1916 wordt de Dow uitgebreid naar twintig bedrijven; er verdwijnen vier bedrijven en er komen twaalf nieuwe bedrijven bij.</div>
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<i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Dow-index_1916 = (x1 + x2+ ……….+x20) / 20</span></i></div>
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Door deze berekeningswijze wordt een soort piramidespel gecreëerd. Dit gaat goed zolang er bedrijven die in de ‘take-off’-fase of versnellingsfase van hun cyclus zitten, worden toegevoegd. Aan het eind van een transitie zullen dit er echter steeds minder worden.</div>
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Van een aantal bedrijven zijn in de loop der tijd de aandelen gesplitst en voor die aandelen wordt een wegingsfactor in de berekening meegenomen. De formule ziet er als volgt uit (American Can wordt met 6 vermenigvuldigd, General Electric met 4).</div>
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<i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Dow-index_1927 = (6.x1 + 4.x2+ ……….+x20) / 20</span></i></div>
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Echt bizar wordt het bij de wijzigingen die op 1 oktober 1928 op de Dow Jones worden doorgevoerd.<br />Op 1 oktober 1928 wordt de Dow Jones verder uitgebreid naar dertig aandelen. Omdat men nog alles met de hand moet uitrekenen wordt de berekening van de index eenvoudiger. Men introduceert de Dow Divisor. De index wordt berekend door de som van de aandelen te delen door de Dow Divisor.<br />Omdat de index op 1 oktober 1928 niet mag veranderen, krijgt de Dow Divisor de waarde 16.67. De index-grafiek van de twee tijdsperioden moet per slot van rekening wel op elkaar aansluiten.</div>
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<i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Dow-index_okt_1928 = (x1 + x2+ ……….+x30) / 16.67</span></i></div>
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De Dow staat op 1 oktober 1928 op 239, dus de som van de aandelen is 3984 dollar.</div>
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Vanaf dat moment levert een waardestijging (of daling) van het mandje bijna tweemaal zoveel (of minder) indexpunten op. Bij de oude formule zou de som worden gedeeld door dertig.</div>
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Bij elke wijziging in het mandje van de Dow, krijgt de Dow Divisor een andere waarde. Dit gebeurt omdat de index, de uitkomst van de twee formules van beide mandjes, op het moment van verandering dezelfde uitkomst moet opleveren. Ook bij een aandelensplitsing wordt de Dow Divisor om dezelfde reden aangepast.</div>
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In het najaar van 1928 en het voorjaar van 1929 vinden er acht aandelensplitsingen waardoor de Dow Divisor daalt naar 10.47.</div>
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<i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Dow-index_sept_1929 = (x1 + x2+ ……….+x30) / 10.47</span></i></div>
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Vanaf dat moment levert een waardestijging (of daling) van het mandje bijna driemaal zoveel (of weinig) indexpunten op dan een jaar eerder. Bij de oude formule zou de som worden gedeeld door dertig. De Dow heeft op zijn hoogtepunt, 3 september 1929, namelijk 381 punten.</div>
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De extreme stijging en daarna de extreme daling van de Dow in de periode 1920-1932 is dus vooral veroorzaakt door rekenkundige veranderingen van de Dow, de voortdurende wijziging van het mandje in de versnellingsfase van de tweede industriële revolutie en de aandelensplitsingen die in deze periode hebben plaatsgevonden. Door deze wijzigingen in de Dow zijn beleggers natuurlijk volledig op het verkeerde been gezet. De onderliggende bedrijven die de Dow destijds droegen, kwamen echter ook in de stabilisatie- en aftakelingsfase.</div>
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Déjà vu</h4>
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Tijdens de versnellingsfase van de derde industriële revolutie vanaf 1980, door de komst van de microprocessor, heeft de geschiedenis zich herhaald. Het mandje van de Dow is in deze periode bijna volledig vervangen. Vele aandelensplitsingen hebben plaatsgevonden, waardoor de Dow Divisor weer sterk is veranderd. De Dow Divisor bedraagt momenteel 0,132319125, terwijl in 1985 deze deler nog meer dan 1 was.</div>
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<i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Dow-index_1985 = (x1 + x2 + ……..+x30) / 1.116<br />Dow-index_2009 = (x1 + x2 + …….. + x30) / 0,132319125</span></i></div>
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Dit verklaart weer de exponentiële stijging van de Dow-grafiek in de jaren negentig. Een koersstijging van 1 dollar van het mandje in 2009 levert dus de facto 8,4 meer indexpunten dan in 1985 (bij daling gebeurt het tegenovergestelde). Vandaar dat we de laatste jaren ook extreme uitslagen zien. Momenteel staat de Dow op 9665; bij het hanteren van de formule uit 1985 zou de index nu op 1150 staan. Ook nu zijn beleggers weer op het verkeerde been gezet.</div>
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De echte melt-down van de Dow vond destijds plaats na de beurscrach van oktober 1929. In de periode 1930-1932 daalde de Dow verder van 230 naar uiteindelijk 41 punten. Cruciale vraag blijft natuurlijk, of de huidige onderliggende economie sterk genoeg is om de Dow op het huidige peil te houden. Zullen de onderliggende bedrijven die de Dow momenteel dragen, dit keer niet in de stabilisatie- en aftakelingsfase terecht komen? Zullen er voldoende nieuwe bedrijven zijn om als nieuwe dragers te fungeren? En wanneer zal dat zijn?</div>
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Ik roep de financiële wereld op, de formule waarmee de Dow wordt berekend, eens kritisch onder de loep te nemen. Blijft de huidige berekening in tact, dan zal bij een volgende transitie de belegger opnieuw met een kluitje in het riet worden gestuurd.</div>
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<span style="font-family: georgia;">- Wim Grommen</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: georgia;">Wim Grommen is van origine wiskunde/natuurkundedocent (tien jaar). hij geeft al vijfentwintig jaar trainingen op het gebied van automatisering, momenteel bij Transfer Solutoions in Leerdam. Hij heeft zich de laatste jaren verdiept in maatschappelijke transformatieprocessen en de S-curve.</span></div>
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Het artikel <b>Beurskrach 1929, mysterie ontrafeld?</b> is januari 2010 verschenen in het maandblad Technische & Kwantitatieve Analyse, een maandelijkse uitgave van Beleggers Belangen.</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: georgia; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"></span><br />
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<u>Bronvermelding:</u><div style="margin-bottom: 25px;">
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1 – http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beurskrach_van_1929<br />2- Transities & transitiemanagement, casus van een emissiearme energievoorziening, Prof. dr. ir. Jan Rotmans e.a.<br />3 – Transities & transitiemanagement, casus van een emissiearme energievoorziening, Prof. dr. ir. Jan Rotmans e.a.<br />4 – Geschiedenis Werkplaatssite van Wolters-Noordhoff</div>
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Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-46849212437852156332013-09-01T09:22:00.001-07:002013-09-01T09:22:24.234-07:00The Dow Jones Index is the Greatest of All Ponzi Schemes<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The Dow Jones Index is the Greatest of All Ponzi Schemes</h1>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index – the oldest stock exchange in the <a href="http://www.munknee.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/investing2.jpg" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out; border: 0px none; color: #007ec2; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out;"><img alt="investing2" class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-26256" height="100" src="http://www.munknee.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/investing2-150x150.jpg" style="border: 1px solid rgb(203, 205, 204); display: inline; float: right; height: auto; list-style: none; margin: 2px 3px 3px 8px; max-width: 100%; outline: none; padding: 4px;" width="100" /></a>U.S. and most influential in the world – consists of 30 companies and has an extremely interesting and distressing history regarding its beginnings, transformation and structural development which has all the trappings of what is commonly referred to as pyramid or Ponzi scheme.</b></div>
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So writes <strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Wim Grommen</strong> in an article originally posted on<a href="http://www.financialarticlesummariestoday.com/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out; border: 0px none; color: #007ec2; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out;"><strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.munknee.com/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out; border: 0px none; color: #007ec2; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out;"><strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">www.munKNEE.com</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"> </strong>entitled<em style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"> Beware: The Dow 30′s Performance is Being Manipulated!</em></div>
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Grommen goes on to say, and I quote:</div>
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The Dow Index was first published in 1896 when it consisted of just 12 constituents and was a simple price average index in which the sum total value of the shares of the 12 constituents were simply divided by 12. As such those shares with the highest prices had the greatest influence on the movements of the index as a whole. In 1916 the Dow 12 became the Dow 20 with four companies being removed from the original twelve and twelve new companies being added. In October, 1928 the Dow 20 became the Dow 30 but the calculation of the index was changed to be the sum of the value of the shares of the 30 constituents divided by what is known as the Dow Divisor.</div>
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While the inclusion of the Dow Divisor may have seemed totally straightforward it was – and still is – anything but! Why so? Because every time the number of, or specific constituent, companies change in the index any comparison of the new index value with the old index value is impossible to make with any validity whatsoever. It is like comparing the taste of a cocktail of fruits when the number of different fruits and their distinctive flavours – keep changing. Let me explain the aforementioned as it relates to the Dow.</div>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Companies Go Through 5 Transition Phases</b></div>
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On one hand, generally speaking, the companies that are removed from the index are in either the stabilization or degeneration transition phases of which there are five, namely:</div>
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1. the pre-development phase in which the present status does not visibly change.</div>
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2. the take-off phase in which the process of change starts because of changes to the system</div>
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3. the acceleration phase in which visible structural changes – social, cultural, economical, ecological, institutional – influence each other</div>
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4. the stabilization phase in which the speed of sociological change slows down and a new dynamic is achieved through learning.</div>
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5. the degeneration phase in which costs rise because of over-capacity leading to the producing company finally withdrawing from the market.</div>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">The Dow Index is a Pyramid Scheme</b></div>
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On the other hand, companies in the take-off or acceleration phase are added to the index. This <b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline;">greatly</span></b>increases the chances that the index will always continue to advance rather than decline. In fact, <span style="border: 0px none; color: blue; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><em style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">the manner in which the Dow index is maintained actually creates a kind of pyramid scheme! All goes well as long as companies are added that are in their take-off or acceleration phase in place of companies in their stabilization or degeneration phase.</strong></em></span></div>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">The False Appreciation of the Dow Explained</b></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">On October 1<sup style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">st</sup>, 1928,</strong> when the Dow was enlarged to 30 constituents, the calculation formula for the index was changed to take into account the fact that the shares of companies in the Index split on occasion. It was determined that, to allow the value of the Index to remain constant, the sum total of the share values of the 30 constituent companies would be divided by 16.67 ( called the Dow Divisor) as opposed to the previous 30.</div>
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<strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">On October 1<sup style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">st</sup>, 1928</strong> the sum value of the shares of the 30 constituents of the Dow 30 was $3,984 which was then divided by 16.67 rather than 30 thereby generating an index value of 239 (3984 divided by 16.67) instead of 132.8 (3984 divided by 30) representing an increase of 80% overnight!! This action had the affect of putting dramatically more importance on the absolute dollar changes of those shares with the greatest price changes. But it didn’t stop there!</div>
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<strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">On September, 1929</strong> the Dow divisor was adjusted yet again. This time it was reduced even further down to 10.47 as a way of better accounting for the change in the deletion and addition of constituents back in October, 1928 which, in effect, increased the October 1<sup style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">st</sup>, 1928 index value to 380.5 from the original 132.8 for a paper increase of 186.5%!!!</div>
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<strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">From September, 1929 onwards</strong> (at least for a while) this “adjustment” had the affect – and I repeat myself – of putting even that much more importance on the absolute dollar changes of those shares with the greatest changes.</div>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">How the Dow Divisor Contributed to the Crash of ‘29</b></div>
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From the above analyses/explanation it is evident that the dramatic “adjustments” to the Dow Divisor (coupled with the addition/deletion of constituent companies according to which transition phase they were in) were major contributors to the dramatic increase in the Dow from 1920 until October 1929 and the following dramatic decrease in the Dow 30 from then until 1932 notwithstanding the economic conditions of the time as well.</div>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Exponential Rise in the Dow 30 is Revealed</b></div>
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The 1980s and ‘90s saw a continuation of the undermining of the true value of the Dow 30. Yes – you guessed correctly –further “adjustments” in the Dow Divisor kept coming and coming! As the set of constituents of the Dow changed over the years (almost all of them) and many shares were split the Dow Divisor kept changing.</div>
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By 1985 the Dow Divisor was only 1.116 and today it is only 0.132129493. Indeed, a rise of $1 in share value of the 30 constituents actually results in 8.446 more index points than in 1985 (1.116 divided by 0.132129493).</div>
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Had it not been for this dramatic decrease in the Dow Divisor the Nov.3/10 Dow 30 index value of 12,215 (sum total of the current prices of the 30 constituent shares of $1481.85 divided by 0.132129493) would only be 1327.82 ($1481.85 divided by 1.116) in 1985 terms.</div>
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Were we still using the original formula the Dow 30 would actually be only 49.395 ($1481.85 divided by 30)!</div>
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The crucial questions today are:</div>
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1. Is the current underlying economy strong enough to keep the Dow 30 at its present level?</div>
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2. Will the 30 constituents of the Dow remain robust or evolve into the stabilization and degeneration phases?</div>
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3. Will there be enough new companies to act as new “up-lifters” of the Dow?</div>
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4. When will the Dow Divisor change – yet again??</div>
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<b style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">The Dow 30 is the Greatest of All Ponzi Schemes</b></div>
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<span style="border: 0px none; color: blue; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><em style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">I call on the financial community to take a critical look at the Dow Divisor. If it is retained investors will continue to be deceived with every new transition from one phase to another and the greatest of all Ponzi schemes will have major financial consequences for every investor.</strong></em></span></div>
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(A version of this article, entitled <em style="border: 0px none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Beurskrach 1929, mysterie ontrafeld?,</em> was first published in Dutch in the January 2010 issue of “Technische en Kwantitatieve Analyse” magazine which is a monthly publication of Beleggers Belangen (Investment Interests) in the Netherlands and on several sites there including: <a href="http://historiek.net/beurskrach-1929-mysterie-ontrafeld/12610/" style="-webkit-transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out; border: 0px none; color: #007ec2; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out;">Beurskrach 1929 mysterie ontrafeld? op Historiek.net</a>)</h6>
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Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-13168924346682518692010-07-03T10:37:00.001-07:002010-07-03T10:37:44.905-07:00More Money Than God Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite<div id="book_meta" style="clear: none; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 30px;"><div id="book_cover" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;"><img alt="More Money Than God" border="0" class="imgleft" height="227" src="http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/images/MoreMoneythanGodlrg_1.jpg" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; border-width: initial; float: left; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 10px; padding-top: 10px;" width="147" /></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="author-table" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: -10px; margin-top: 10px; max-width: 540px !important;"><tbody style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">
<tr style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;"><th style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 3px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Author:</th><td class="authors" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><div class="name" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; margin-bottom: 0px;"><a href="http://www.cfr.org/bios/4452/sebastian_mallaby.html" style="border-bottom-color: initial !important; border-bottom-style: none !important; border-bottom-width: initial !important; border-color: initial !important; border-left-style: none !important; border-right-style: none !important; border-top-style: none !important; border-width: initial !important; color: #411c0d; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px !important; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.6; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: none;">Sebastian Mallaby</a>, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics</div></td></tr>
</tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="author-table" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: -10px; margin-top: 10px; max-width: 540px !important;"><tbody style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">
<tr style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;"><th style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 3px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Publisher:</th><td class="authors" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: top;">A CFR Book. Penguin Press</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 11px !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left !important;">Release Date: June 2010</div><div style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left !important;">496 pages<br style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;" />ISBN 978-1594202551<br style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;" /><strong style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">$29.95</strong></div><div style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left !important;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-Making/dp/1594202559/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1272029734&sr=8-1" style="border-bottom-color: initial; border-bottom-style: none !important; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial !important; border-left-style: none !important; border-right-style: none !important; border-top-style: none !important; border-width: initial !important; color: #411c0d; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px !important; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="Order this Publication"><img alt="Order this Publication" border="0" height="19" src="http://www.cfr.org/i/button_order_publication.gif" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" width="153" /></a></div><ul class="icon-book" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 15px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></ul></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px;"><br />
</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px;"><span id="bookB"></span></span><h6 style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; border-width: initial; border-width: initial; clear: left; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 2em; font-weight: 400; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Overview</h6><div class="cms" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px; margin-top: -3px;"><div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; width: 490px;">Wealthy, powerful, and potentially dangerous, hedge-fund moguls have become the It Boys of twenty-first-century capitalism. Their weekend mansions are fodder for <em>Vanity Fair</em>photographers; their potential to cause chaos preoccupied authorities even before the recent financial cataclysm. Based on esteemed financial writer Sebastian Mallaby’s unprecedented access to the industry, including three hundred hours of interviews and binders of internal documents, <em>More Money Than God </em>tells the inside story of hedge funds’ origins in the 1960s and 1970s, their explosive battles with central banks in the 1980s and 1990s, and finally their role in the financial crisis of 2007–2009.</div><div class="pullquote_left"><div style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #965519; float: left; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif !important; font-size: 20px !important; font-style: italic; line-height: 1.3 !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 20px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left !important; width: 490px;">“A wonderful story and an education in finance.”<br />
<strong>—Fareed Zakaria</strong></div></div><div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; width: 490px;">Hedge funds reward risk takers, so they tend to attract larger-than-life personalities. Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies began life as a code-breaker and mathematician, co-authoring a paper on theoretical geometry that led to breakthroughs in string theory. Ken Griffin of Citadel started out trading convertible bonds from his dorm room at Harvard. Julian Robertson staffed his hedge fund with college athletes half his age, then he flew them to various retreats in the Rockies and raced them up the mountains. Paul Tudor Jones posed for a magazine photograph next to a killer shark and happily declared that a 1929-style crash would be “total rock-and-roll” for him. Michael Steinhardt was capable of reducing underlings to sobs. “All I want to do is kill myself,” one said. “Can I watch?” Steinhardt responded.</div><div class="pullquote_right"><div style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #965519; float: right; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif !important; font-size: 20px !important; font-style: italic; line-height: 1.3 !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 20px; padding-right: 20px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left !important; width: 490px;">“The fullest account we have so far of a too-little-understood business that changed the shape of finance and no doubt will continue to do so.”<br />
<strong>—Wall Street Journal</strong></div></div><div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; width: 490px;">Finance professors have long argued that beating the market is impossible, and yet drawing on insights from mathematics, economics, and psychology, hedge funds have cracked the market’s mysteries and gone on to earn fortunes. Their innovation has transformed the world, spawning new markets in exotic financial instruments and rewriting the rules of capitalism.</div><div class="pullquote_left"><div style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #965519; float: left; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif !important; font-size: 20px !important; font-style: italic; line-height: 1.3 !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 20px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left !important; width: 490px;">“A fascinating history.”<br />
<strong>—</strong><strong>John Y. Campbell, Department of Economics, Harvard University</strong></div></div><div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; width: 490px;">More than just a history, <em>More Money Than God</em>is a window on tomorrow’s financial system. Hedge funds have been left for dead after past financial panics: after the stock market rout of the early 1970s, after the bond market bloodbath of 1994, after the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, and yet again after the dot-com crash in 2000. Each time, hedge funds have proved to be survivors, and it would be wrong to bet against them now. Banks such as Citigroup, brokers such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, home lenders such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, insurers such as AIG, and money market funds run by giants such as Fidelity—all have failed or been bailed out. But the hedge fund industry has survived the test of 2007–2009 far better than its rivals. To a surprising and unrecognized degree, the future of finance lies in the history of hedge funds.</div></div>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-34342034642947034682010-02-01T16:37:00.000-08:002010-02-01T16:37:39.366-08:00Universal statistical properties of poker tournaments<a href="http://www.citebase.org/fulltext?format=application/pdf&identifier=oai:arXiv.org:physics/0703122">http://www.citebase.org/fulltext?format=application/pdf&identifier=oai:arXiv.org:physics/0703122</a>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-50400841096985433022010-01-31T19:45:00.001-08:002010-01-31T19:45:45.860-08:00The Battle of the Titans: JP Morgan Versus Goldman Sachs Or Why the Market Was Down for 7 Days in a Row<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px;"></span><br />
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</div><br />
<div class="articleAuthorName">By Ellen Brown</div></td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" colspan="2" nowrap=""><div class="bigArticleText12">URL of this article: <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYeq4oFZpz2HeEU0vImqOvvPttEQHyXhIpmQcM9cO7I1blbc-KE6mfyQjxVh2lkN3gtWV8OuQGRx42BAQnmuuXvDGp4OXOeIt29T-fLwhMjCKZGpAW-RL1Af6Xa9GPU1DRv63xrXdkAz3PhwIE0YyhEwRmdO0DqAgCAw=" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17280</a></div></td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" colspan="2" nowrap=""><div class="bigArticleText12"><a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYeojJ64ssm1peLV669bwI8dL0RGV97mqBGvaXFN39vZTKvhjDhGXqsv6pJRIR84okkx03Zi9T8FYWXXB_GpqD2ivWrI-hKwsHYh-uRVrv5zJNg==" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Global Research</a>, January 29, 2010</div></td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" colspan="2" nowrap=""><div class="bigArticleText12"><a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYerx2sXxG--CtCNRON7y3Si7Yjh-2nGK0ErFUbUWVGKacQLcO8M10x4qiBks5MAAjc_4zO6seJiD2_HWF7N-DZJGl5lshH1gcXmWvRbAqGCLmw==" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Web of Debt</a> - 2010-01-28</div></td></tr>
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-US">We are witnessing an epic battle between two banking giants, JPMorgan Chase (Paul Volcker) and Goldman Sachs (Geithner/Summers/Rubin). Left strewn on the battleground could be your pension fund and 401K.</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">The late Libertarian economist <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYep-tWl7Pk73CxXISIbJqvIwQBYs_DPXN8R2c9hFL3l75wBGJlC4oGE9hfJrmYQBhEFWplatNGo3q13VUrGEyKleyKpfn7MOheF-UITcGVx22anKC6kdlLjZGaNWsJ9-0r9RiELr8BR0UaBdvTrMZnNm" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="WPHyperlin1">Murray Rothbard</span></a> wrote that </span><span lang="EN-US">U.S.</span><span lang="EN-US"> politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players. No popular third party candidate had a real chance at winning, because the bankers had the exclusive power to create the national money supply and therefore held the winning cards.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">In 2000, the Rockefellers and the Morgans joined forces, when JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan merged to become JPMorgan Chase Co. Today the battling banking titans are JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that gained notoriety for its <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYeo5VBUK1r7BFdFxvLFh_0fnop8nOtb7aLL4MoBxlzCT1lBU2Gpmxxq7HKNkZeWLfbMmdyeWYbC9ou7JMMLPG33PjDgNCVIG1McKCAQ0kX868WF4k_owmC3ixRkOKVzu6QU=" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">speculative practices</a> in the 1920s. In 1928, it launched the Goldman Sachs Trading Corp., a closed-end fund similar to a Ponzi scheme. The fund failed in the stock market crash of 1929, marring the firm's reputation for years afterwards. Former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson, Robert Rubin, and Larry Summers all came from Goldman, and current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner rose through the ranks of government as a Summers/Rubin protégé. One commentator called the U.S. Treasury Goldman Sachs South.<span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">Goldmans superpower status comes from something more than just access to the money spigots of the banking system. It actually has the ability to <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYeouAHLYzy4lgAVw1cgqirBAqzrtcL5RL6PcYZeIeo8S8TOggOO6soQrwOONmjh4Udq5ZdjWsjxVVqb5-OBgGZxiuCIJmCH2hTr6eGrdMpJlE7t2bqs4MZpSWumt2HdNxlK-xVcYbYYMcwZJ_RDVyumC" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">manipulate</a> markets. Formerly just an investment bank, in 2008 Goldman magically transformed into a bank holding company. That gave it access to the Federal Reserves lending window; but at the same time it remained an investment bank, aggressively speculating in the markets.<span> </span>The upshot was that it can now borrow massive amounts of money at virtually 0% interest, and it can use this money not only to speculate for its own account but to bend markets to its will.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">But Goldman Sachs has been caught in this blatant market manipulation so often that the JPMorgan faction of the banking empire has finally had enough. The voters too have evidently had enough, as demonstrated in the recent upset in </span><span lang="EN-US">Massachusetts</span><span lang="EN-US"> that threw the late Senator Ted Kennedys Democratic seat to a Republican. That pivotal loss gave Paul Volcker, chairman of President Obamas newly formed Economic Recovery Advisory Board, an opportunity to step up to the plate with some proposals for serious banking reform. <span style="color: black;">Unlike the string of Treasury Secretaries who came to the government through the revolving door of Goldman Sachs,</span> former Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker came up through Chase Manhattan Bank, where he was vice president before joining the Treasury. On January 27, market commentator <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYer5vH31Gi325MtZFjzc9hrN37ggiIE0St_ciIXnoI8FdLYepoSmvoWIiR4zEjuRD6Jhskmnah93fqCNnFQOFgLumoFIFsrbnt2Ma_AFz0RwfiMUh04qc17i2ArkiOESxG1H3Wa_j_8NPMV7PXBVN4cedLmfmjxjBCs=" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bob Chapman</a> wrote in his weekly investment newsletter <i>The International Forecaster</i>:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">A split has occurred between the paper forces of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. Mr. Volcker represents Morgan interests. Both sides are Illuminists, but the Morgan side is tired of Goldmans greed and arrogance. . . . Not that JP Morgan Chase was blameless, they did their looting and damage to the system as well, but not in the high handed arrogant way the others did. The recall of Volcker is an attempt to reverse the damage as much as possible. That means the influence of Geithner, Summers, Rubin, et al will be put on the back shelf at least for now, as will be the Goldman influence. It will be slowly and subtly phased out. . . . </span><span lang="EN-US">Washington</span><span lang="EN-US"> needs a new face on Wall Street, not that of a criminal syndicate.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">Goldmans crimes, says Chapman, were that it got caught stealing. First in naked shorts, then front-running the market, both of which they are still doing, as the SEC looks the other way, and then selling MBS-CDOs to their best clients and simultaneously shorting them.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">Volckers proposal would rein in these abuses, either by ending the risky proprietary trading (trading for their own accounts) engaged in by the too-big-to-fail banks, or by forcing them to downsize by selling off those portions of their businesses engaging in it. Until recently, President Obama has declined to support Volckers plan, but on January 21 he finally <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYerKtuEw14-_Lvh_xiEw-wO4IQpehlfZWv2t9kN2qMIJAcp_BEQwNpi6e9P6zzNzELNX9ZfGHpLQ0ipzgRx15H1TkTf0OlmuVduMZRxmI6da0IiLGtFTBvN_AXarx6754p2n2dDPuqsk74SWj9M4cxClmQsbnSbgdnrbWF4rxDjQPrvtvPKkgUyuhIkigEu_MR8ZB3DLRBuy6zHNqJOlQfcJqcf3TTsN3-JOy1ZIPScXkOWZL4kvFA6NVu2kXSoMJGsp15HeJBrWcqub6Lh9-qh0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="WPHyperlin1">endorsed</span></a> it.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">The immediate reaction of the market was to drop and drop, day after day. At least, that appeared to be the reaction of the market. Financial analyst <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYerxdJBUwjcmsMhzI84UGDN6dQcSybWh4MWzO7T0HyC0mZZmeUatRlFMRbERR18HlaIWeqOmFmA1xSk9MtWnJWSfogsO1s1UgngBxh_f2ztxrA==" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Max Keiser</a> suggests a more sinister possibility. Goldman, which has the power to manipulate markets with its high-speed program trades, may be engaging in a Mexican standoff. The veiled threat is, Back off on the banking reforms, or stand by and watch us continue to crash your markets. The same manipulations were evident in the bank bailout forced on Congress by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson in September 2008.<span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">In Keisers January 23 <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYeowq4ktb8POhZZ6epMHgNYmB5yF-7IWK_awyckWNMifnMEDcYmCX6qk9usRHy1IFH4nv5Fc4BHP26HRuWvU0vCmy1QU-gVziO9mxJijwEmqyFFUsTG_X58uAOLP1meVEN26l-0EyyTCa90ATvq2GFzyGxtyOcam53nBC_FmrdDQT5JLs6to8u-wPuGEy4MGWfw2u6Pz_aEZPSTPWT74kMpt" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="WPHyperlin1">broadcast</span></a> with co-host Stacy Herbert, he explains how Goldmans manipulations are done. Keiser is a fast talker, so this transcription is not verbatim, but it is close. He says:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">High frequency trading accounts for 70% of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Ordinarily, a buyer and a seller show up on the floor, and a specialist determines the price of a trade that would satisfy buyer and seller, and thats the market price. If there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, the specialist lowers the price. High frequency trading as conducted by Goldman means that before the specialist buys and sells and makes that market, Goldman will electronically flood the specialist with thousands and thousands of trades to totally disrupt that process and essentially commandeer that process, for the benefit of siphoning off nickels and dimes for themselves. Not only are they siphoning cash from the New York Stock Exchange but they are also manipulating prices. What I see as a possibility is that next week, if the bankers on Wall Street decide they dont want to be reformed in any way, they simply set the high frequency trading algorithm to sell, creating a huge negative bias for the direction of stocks. And theyll basically crash the market, and it will be a standoff.<span> </span>The market was down three days in a row, which it hasnt been since last summer. Its a game of chicken, till Obama says, Okay, maybe we need to rethink this.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">But the President hasnt knuckled under yet. In his State of the Union address on January 27, he did not dwell long on the issue of bank reform, but he held to his position. He said:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">We can't allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy. The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes. And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">What this real reform would look like was left to conjecture, but Bob Chapman fills in some blanks and suggests what might be needed for an effective overhaul:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">The attempt will be to bring the financial system back to brass tacks. . . . That would include little or no MBS and CDOs, the regulation of derivatives and hedge funds and the end of massive market manipulation, both by Treasury, Fed and Wall Street players. Congress has to end the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, or at least limit its use to real emergencies. . . . The Glass-Steagall Act should be reintroduced into the system and lobbying and campaign contributions should end. . . . No more politics in lending and banks should be limited to a lending ratio of 10 to 1. . . . It is bad enough they have the leverage that they have. State banks such as </span><span lang="EN-US">North Dakota</span><span lang="EN-US">s are a better idea.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">On January 28, the predictable reaction of the market was to fall for the seventh straight day. The battle of the Titans was on.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US"><strong>Ellen Brown</strong> developed her research skills as an attorney practicing civil litigation in </span><span lang="EN-US">Los Angeles</span><span lang="EN-US">. In <u>Web of Debt</u>, her latest book, she turns those skills to an analysis of the Federal Reserve and the money trust. She shows how this private cartel has usurped the power to create money from the people themselves, and how we the people can get it back. Her eleven books include<u>Forbidden Medicine</u>, <u>Natures Pharmacy</u> (co-authored with Dr. Lynne Walker), and <u>The Key to Ultimate Health</u> (co-authored with Dr. Richard Hansen). Her websites are <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYerx2sXxG--CtCNRON7y3Si7Yjh-2nGK0ErFUbUWVGKacQLcO8M10x4qiBks5MAAjc_4zO6seJiD2_HWF7N-DZJGl5lshH1gcXmWvRbAqGCLmw==" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="WPHyperlin1">www.webofdebt.com</span></a>,<a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYeoP6C-Mcv3w_mB2-YdkJ-YseOogkpti5dbT4lzBVC5dUNl2kY4enV2EFD-YDZ6AkclhwVbn0ehEQf2DKK7hNROZ-tJ1S44C5NvMUJLUUcEdyw==" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="WPHyperlin1">www.ellenbrown.com</span></a>, and <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102980831242&s=31927&e=001HAUpOH2nYep0HScLpxOpppkDOtxG0YssTETEAK9dDbIa5zNzGsJSHmoZrLNZxpo7tftCzkBrMQJqbSiL28_L8nymZmrvCGhBIfySXBjgYtrNpRBptJdETRvfTnBZ_EIA" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.public-banking.com</a>.</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></b></em></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><br />
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</tbody></table>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-70966933847645447722010-01-25T08:53:00.000-08:002010-01-25T08:53:25.406-08:00The Lost Decade: New Census Data Outlines Bush Era Setbacks in Poverty, Income, and Health Coverage<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: small; line-height: 15px;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">This first decade in the new millennium has been a trying one for Americans, and the nation is still coming to terms with the scale of problems President Obama inherited. After a historic economic boom under President Clinton, the country experienced a painful bust.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">A new DLC <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102959752149&s=37838&e=001JrfP1N02V84Z-9euFPGtTSfU81N6blRAlzZw7zpD8GqpRKyr90k3kC6JOG9UxIEvLDqGFb3EXb_fobjc7_jfX9a6Z5MIeCiNaOFbkl8wOQ043CknxxYujrldXlw148qxgpAXJHddJ1y-v4z-ONR_ZA==" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">report</a> looks at recent Census data to assess the damage. With the final year of George W. Bush's presidency on the books, the numbers are clear: much like Japan during the 1990s, the last 10 years have been a "Lost Decade" for the United States. The analysis reveals that, after a decade in which incomes rose, poverty fell, and the rate of Americans lacking health coverage shrank, the country has suffered setbacks across all three social indicators.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">The new report, "<a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102959752149&s=37838&e=001JrfP1N02V84Z-9euFPGtTSfU81N6blRAlzZw7zpD8GqpRKyr90k3kC6JOG9UxIEvLDqGFb3EXb_fobjc7_jfX9a6Z5MIeCiNaOFbkl8wOQ043CknxxYujrldXlw148qxgpAXJHddJ1y-v4z-ONR_ZA==" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">The Lost Decade: New Census Data Outlines Bush Era Setbacks in Poverty, Income, and Health Coverage</a>," authored by DLC research associate Conor McKay, makes three principal findings:<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><ol style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; list-style-type: decimal; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1.2em; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 40px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><div style="line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><strong style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;">Income:</strong> Inflation adjusted incomes fell further under President Bush than under any president since reporting began. Under President Clinton, per capita incomes rose 25 percent.</div></li>
<li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><div style="line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><strong style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;">Poverty:</strong> The poverty rate jumped 17 percent under President Bush, with nearly 8 million more Americans in poverty today than were in 2000. In 2008, the country saw the largest single-year increase in the poverty rate in the last 25 years. The poverty rate fell 24 percent under President Clinton.</div></li>
<li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><div style="line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><strong style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;">Health Coverage:</strong> The number of uninsured Americans increased over 20 percent to an all-time high of 46.3 million, including a dramatic 157 percent increase in the population of uninsured Americans over the age of 65. The uninsured rate dropped under President Clinton.</div></li>
</ol><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">The Obama administration is working hard to reverse these trends. The economic recovery package and other measures have pulled the economy back from the brink and helped to stem job losses -- and as the recovery develops, incomes will rise again and poverty will fall. As McKay's report reveals, after the past decade, America has a lot of catching up to do.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">As always, I look forward to your comments and feedback.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Sincerely,<br />
</div><div align="left" style="line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><img alt="Bruce_Reed_signature" border="0" name="ACCOUNT.IMAGE.39" src="http://origin.ih.constantcontact.com/fs044/1101899872869/img/39.gif?a=1102959752149" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /></div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Bruce Reed<br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" />CEO<br />
</div></span>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-16937959572249819692010-01-24T19:24:00.000-08:002010-01-24T19:24:41.522-08:00The United States of Corporate America: From Democracy to Plutocracy<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" id="ViewArticleTable"><tbody>
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<blockquote dir="ltr" style="margin-right: 0px;"><div align="justify"><em>"The price of apathy towards public affairs is to be ruled by evil men."</em>Plato, ancient Greek philosopher<br />
</div><div align="justify"><em>...“The 20th century has been characterized by three developments of great political importance: The growth of democracy, the growth of corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy</em>.”Alex Carey, Australian social scientist<br />
</div><div align="justify">“<em>The most effective way to restrict democracy is to transfer decision-making from the public arena to unaccountable institutions: kings and princes, priestly castes, military juntas, party dictatorships, or modern corporations.” </em>Noam Chomsky, M.I.T. Emeritus Professor of Linguistics<br />
</div></blockquote><div align="justify">On Tuesday, January 19 (2010), the Obama administration got a kick in the pants from the Massachusetts voters when they filled former Senator Ted Kennedy's seat by electing a conservative Republican candidate. The essence of their message was: stop dithering and start governing; stop trying to satisfy the bankers and please the editors of Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal, and start caring for the ordinary people.<br />
</div><div align="justify">Two days later, President Barack Obama seemed to have understood the people's message when he announced a “Volcker rule” that will forbid large banks from owning hedge funds that make money by placing large bets against their own clients, using information that these same clients gave them. It was time. Such a policy should have been announced months ago, if not years ago.<br />
</div><div align="justify">On the same day, however, a nonelected body, the U.S. Supreme Court, threw a different challenge to the Obama administration. Indeed, on Thursday January 21 (2010), a Republican-appointed majority on the U.S. Supreme Court [<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/21/us/AP-US-Supreme-Court-Campaign-Finance.html?src=tptw" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;">http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/21/us/AP-US-Supreme-Court-Campaign-Finance.html?src=tptw</a>] took it upon itself to profoundly change the U.S. Constitution and American democracy. Indeed, in what can be labeled a most reactionary decision, the Roberts U.S. Supreme Court, [<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/21/us/AP-US-Supreme-Court-Campaign-Finance.html?src=tptw" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;">http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/21/us/AP-US-Supreme-Court-Campaign-Finance.html?src=tptw</a>] ruled that legal entities, such as corporations and labor unions, have the same purely personal rights to free speech as living individuals. Indeed, the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution [<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution</a>] says “Congress shall make no law ... abridging the freedom of speech.<br />
</div><div align="justify">The only problem with such a wide interpretation of the U.S. Bills of Rights [<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Bill_of_Rights" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;" target="_new">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Bill_of_Rights</a>] (N.B.: The first ten amendments to the United States Constitution are known as the Bill of Rights) is that this runs contrary its letter and its spirit, since it clearly states later on that "the enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people, and reserves all powers not granted to the federal government to the citizenry or States.” The words “people” and “citizenry” clearly refer here to living human beings, not to legal or artificial entities such as business corporations, labor unions, financial organizations or political lobbies.<br />
</div><div align="justify">Such entities, for example, cannot vote in an election. Indeed, laws governing voting rights in the United States clearly establish that only “Adult citizens of the United States who are residents of one of the 50 states have the right to participate fully in the political system of the United States”. No mention is made of corporations or other legal entities.<br />
</div><div align="justify">However, with its January 19 (2010) decision, the majority on the Roberts U.S. Supreme Court is saying in effect that even if artificial entities cannot vote in an election, they can spend as much money as they like to influence the outcome of an election. Money is speech for them, and the more a legal entity has of it, the more it has a right to become powerful politically and control the political agenda.<br />
</div><div align="justify">In fact, what Chief Justice Roberts and his conservative Supreme Court majority have done is to overcome a century-old democratic tradition in the United States in granting a constitutional right to business corporations and to banks, (because they are really the ones with a lot of money), to use their enormous resources to not only participate in debates about public issues, but also, and above all, to de facto dictate the election of candidates of their choice to public office.<br />
</div><div align="justify"><strong>That's plutocracy, not democracy!</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify">Plutocracy [<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutocracy" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutocracy</a>] is defined as a political system characterized by “the rule by the wealthy, or power provided by wealth.” Democracy, on the other hand, is defined as a political system where political power belongs to the people. This means “a political government either carried out directly by the people (direct democracy) or by means of elected representatives of the people (representative democracy). The terms "the power to the people" are derived from the words "people" and "power" in Greek.<br />
</div><div align="justify">This fundamental idea of democracy was well summarized by President Abraham Lincoln, in his 1863 Gettysburg Address, when he said that it is “a government of the people, by the people and for the people.” This is a definition that is based on the basic democratic principle of equality among human beings.<br />
</div><div align="justify">But now, the Roberts Court's decision must have made President Lincoln turn in his grave, because that decision, in effect, transfers political power from the living “people” to artificial corporate entities, with tons of money to spend. If Congress does not act quickly to reverse this decision, legal entities will be able to spend freely in the media to support or oppose political candidates for president and Congress, and this, as far as the last moment of a political campaign. This is quite something!<br />
</div><div align="justify">By a stroke of the pen, the Roberts Court has thus abolished the laws governing American electoral financing and removed limits to how much special money interests can spend to have the elected officials they want. The government they want will largely be “a government of the corporations, by the corporations, for the corporations.” Truly amazing!<br />
</div><div align="justify">To reflect the new political philosophy of the five-member majority of the Roberts Court, the Preambule of the U.S. Constitution [<a href="http://www.answers.com/topic/preamble-to-the-constitution" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;">http://www.answers.com/topic/preamble-to-the-constitution</a>] that says “We the People of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union...” should, maybe, more appropriately be changed for “We, the business corporations of America...”<br />
</div><div align="justify">It is that much more ironic that the word “corporation” appears nowhere in the U.S. Constitution or in the Bill of Rights. It is scarcely conceivable that the drafters of the Constitution had anything resembling corporate entities in mind when they drafted the Bill of Rights. But the Roberts Court majority does not seem to agree with Washington, Jefferson, Franklin, Madison, Mason...etc. Because of their decision, the five conservative members of the U. S. Supreme Court of today have become the new Fathers of the U. S. Constitution.<br />
</div><div align="justify">For nearly a century, it has been assumed that the U.S. Bill of Rights protected persons, not corporations. Even if sometimes the courts have extended the rights of the14th Amendment banning the deprivation of property without due process or equal protection of the law to the property of corporations, it was never thought that the purely personal rights of the first Amendment of the Bill of Rights applied to corporate entities as well as to human beings. This is understandable. Business corporations are created through legislation that gives them potentially perpetual life and limited liability to enhance their efficiency as economic entities. While such characteristics can be beneficial in the economic sphere, they represent special dangers in the political sphere. That is the rationale for not extending constitutional rights to purely legal entities.<br />
</div><div align="justify">But now, the five-member majority of the Roberts Court have said that such legalized artificial entities have the same constitutionally protected rights to engage in political activities as living individuals.<br />
</div><div align="justify">This is clearly revolutionary or, more precisely, counter-revolutionary.<br />
</div><div align="left"><br />
<em><strong>Rodrigue Tremblay</strong> [</em><a href="http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/author.htm" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;"><em>http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/author.htm</em></a><em>] is professor emeritus of economics at the University of Montreal and can be reached at </em><a href="mailto:rodrigue.tremblay@yahoo.com" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;"><em>rodrigue.tremblay@yahoo.com</em></a><em>. <br />
<br />
He is the author of the forthcoming book "The Code for Global Ethics" at: </em><a href="http://www.thecodeforglobalethics.com/" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;"><em>http://www.TheCodeForGlobalEthics.com/</em></a><em><br />
<br />
You may reserve a copy of the book on Amazon<br />
</em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Code-Global-Ethics-Humanist-Principles/dp/1616141727/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257383472&sr=1-4" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;"><em>http://www.amazon.com/Code-Global-Ethics-Humanist-Principles/dp/1616141727/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257383472&sr=1-4</em></a><br />
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<i>Rodrigue Tremblay is a frequent contributor to Global Research.</i> <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=listByAuthor&authorFirst=Rodrigue%20&authorName=Tremblay" style="color: navy; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none;"><i>Global Research </i></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-30626850116130138422010-01-20T15:33:00.001-08:002010-01-20T15:33:42.448-08:00The dollar's share of world reserves has dropped.<span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: x-large;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 22px;"><b><br style="outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /></b></span></span><br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: x-small; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: x-small; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;"><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #003399; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;"><span style="color: #003399; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;">THE NUMBERS: Dollars, as share of world's allocated foreign reserves:</span></span><br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">2000: 71%<br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" />2005: 67%<br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" />2009: 61%<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #003399; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;"><span style="color: #003399; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;">WHAT THEY MEAN:</span></span><br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" />The dollar is used to price gold at the London Bullion Market Association and cocoa futures at the New York Board of Trade. Vendors prefer it to the sucre and the kip as they settle bills for hot soup in La Paz and T-shirts in Vientiane. Accountants at the People's Bank of China in Beijing and the Central Bank of the Republic of China in Taipei use it as their main currency reserve. And foreign exchange traders use it in 86 percent of the world's $4 trillion in daily currency turnover. Having taken over the reserve-currency role from the pound in 1939, the dollar has held these mighty roles for a life-time.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">The next life, though? The dollar's reserve role peaked at 84.5 percent of all reserves in 1973 (for aficionados, this was just before the "Nixon shock" and the return of fluctuating currency rates), retreated to about 65 percent in the gloomy 1970s and 1980s, and rebounded again above 70 percent by the year 2000. And since then it has dropped fast.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">As of late 2009, world reserves were about $7.5 trillion, or about 10 percent of world GDP. Of the $4.34 trillion in "allocated" holdings -- i.e. the reserves held by 140 countries which make their divisions by currency public -- the biggest pool is China's $2.4 trillion, followed by Japan's $1.0 trillion, Russia's $440 billion and Taiwan's $350 billion. Dollars accounted for $2.73 trillion of this allocated total, euros $1.23 trillion, sterling $192 billion and yen $143 billion. ("Unallocated" reserve holdings are those in countries not choosing to report to the IMF. The IMF is chastely quiet about their identity, but countries in question appear from outside evidence to be mostly oil-producers; their currency holdings are probably similar to those of the reporting countries.) With a declining dollar value and economic troubles in the United States, the dollar's share of allocated reserves fell to 67 percent in 2005 and 61 percent by late 2009. Holdings of UK pounds and euros are rising as the dollar retrenches; the shift presumably reflects a combination of lower dollar values with voluntary choices to invest in other currencies.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #003399; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;"><span style="color: #003399; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;">FURTHER READING: </span></span><br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Explainer -- How much is $7.5 trillion in total reserves? Measured against four different yardsticks, $7.5 trillion is about --<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><ul style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; list-style-type: disc; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 40px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Half of the United States' $14.4 trillion GDP; <br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /></li>
<li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Ten times last year's roughly $700 billion in total stimulus program spending around the world; <br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /></li>
<li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">A bit more than a tenth of the world's $73 trillion GDP;<br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /></li>
<li style="display: list-item; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">A bit less than a tenth of America's roughly $80 trillion in total wealth.</li>
</ul><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">World asset wealth, or the combined value of all world stocks, real estate, bonds, oil reserves, cash, machinery, old-growth forests and so on -- is rather difficult to calculate, but the UN estimated this at $125 trillion for 2000, when total foreign reserves were only $2 trillion. Assuming reserves grew lots faster than wealth in the last decade, the world ratio of reserves to assets might be around 3 percent.<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Some data -<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><ul style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; list-style-type: disc; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 40px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">The U.S. Treasury Department (April 2009) reports on foreign currency practices:<a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS09dqMst_4YGzzqooPyNrfVrT7A5-f_NrF8ZXf-EtPcyKCHvJ5w28AMTQOwU-6zxXQQGC2DsuxMUGCWaYBCBnBxRJBlB5Rtn9fG5CnthT2RD5ZMuWZF2I6PagD23dTWD8XD3HzEA_ui7Q==" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg90.htm</a><br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">IMF's COFER tracks reserve holdings and shares by currency, 1995-2009:<a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS1Ar2jz7ebZSfNZH077Ev6VpAKT2k65_1VDtwfzpa8d9GHptx-hm7AXLyAxnFfXN5PTR8aKlwkj51-PlrcvEBJnqHWvvBsLrD-ihuCnDfDupbQy-pE8-5fjga7XiECMCxaIvdnp6vMQij4vX1CgTzDK4r4mdjn3PbM=" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm</a>
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Meanwhile, electronic trading transmits about $4 trillion worldwide each day, probably a bit more than all the coins, bills and other forms of hard cash in circulation. The Bank for International Settlements, a central-banker conclave in Basel, studies currency circulation every three years. The last study dates to April 2007, and found about 86 percent of all currency trades involving dollars. The next should be out by the end of this year:<a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS0XwHzZNN-pnF--CBT-1keb6Njpe_Qy4hp87lr9eoXZNErMG3j60RK0oQbFBwO2-o1lNlFA9QdqxmjYeW3tJK0YqAFkCe4xppPfiEWg8NVyXj6oZmfm5_jz-6Hp2GWIDPM=" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfxf07t.htm</a>
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">
</div></ul><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Two things that are traded in dollars:<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><ul style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; list-style-type: disc; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 1em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 40px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Cocoa, from the International Cocoa Organization: <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS23Fz4qlAnt_fxO2si7bndazCyVGjNtnKqcJ4ysjw2kx8L3bAypt2qiu7RAg0K3N8REgxXV3tnS7nvz7b5KC2tViNrqWzV7MuH9L9Wjp5Zicag21U1f_40vCbEcUSoLGI4=" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">http://www.icco.org/about/shipping.aspx</a><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Gold, from the London Bullion Market Association:<br style="line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial;" /><a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS1nAznnxHvbR0ijmpAIZ8BUyL5Futcg8V2lS_b1qnHfCLOqQTCbhVqyYWF6EM8lrDTUV7KstLAeDMqkXY-aVeDBZsAgobjayDiCAeZcQNvCKQ==" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://www.lbma.org.uk/</a>
</div></ul><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Two busy dollar-collectors:<br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Governor Zhou of the People's Bank of China speculates, so to speak, on a new international reserve system: <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS3gZJBKalV0x0pp1c4iSsqEOa-ivbMBFV3A1j3g9x2zMxwBSJrPMQbvpLtlW27LrPFp4fu8n2u3YkAJEhGUP3I9PN70xkYRjAVjv90gPshuvyyhMl5vhM8OGOsG1R7z_mEhoVriKd0yJ90Kp2--NAVB0KKIjGZMLPE=" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/detail.asp?col=6500&id=178</a><br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">His counterparts in Taipei stay closer to home affairs: <a href="http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102951963720&s=37838&e=001LcbKAAmPlS2ufdJu_p72B8VsbTdpCqcQAM-OEI9NhMvvUw2-yAG21mi8I19ES60KVUJk7fMxOp5gCV-N3wOxOe3QbggqMzNLCYw16okFoEfmzaDZcIGj-YOQr6pdRyCp" rel="nofollow" shape="rect" style="color: #003399; line-height: 1.2em; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">http://www.cbc.gov.tw/mp2.html</a><br />
</div><div style="display: block; line-height: 1.2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">And two businesses using dollars:<br />
</div></span>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-6542683781020077682010-01-03T10:51:00.000-08:002010-01-03T10:51:13.143-08:00Forward With Caution After Exposing The Fed<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="content_summary" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 0px; float: left; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; width: 728px;">Currencies to continue to fall against gold, dollar rally unsustainable, Fed audit a good move, credit crisis for America and England, small gains in some places, plunges elsewhere, </div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;"><br />
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</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The rally in the dollar and the problems for other currencies prove what we have been saying and that is all currencies will continue to fall vs. gold. The impetus for the dollar rally originates as usual with the government and is added to by the disarray in the economies worldwide, particularly in Europe. One of the things central banks have never learned is that financial engineering only works for a short duration, after that the problem worsens. Even the world’s strongest currencies, the Swiss, Canadian, Aussie and Norwegian, are only holding their own versus gold. The reason why is almost all central banks have done the same thing and that is create money and credit recklessly at the behest of the US government. The US and British financial systems are insolvent. The euro is under severe pressure, because of problems in Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy, and every other central bank is jockeying for position via competitive devaluation. The public may not notice it but the situation is really chaotic. As you can see, the US is never allowed a level playing field, but that is part of what comes with being the international reserve currency. Banks in Britain, Europe and the US continue to take losses, sometimes-severe losses. There is no intermediation going on with the dollar. Its rally is founded on manipulation. We suspect in the future we will have an interesting phenomenon and that is a fall in the dollar, pound and the euro, as gold moves higher as the only viable alternative. The world is going to be shocked when the euro collapses. It won’t happen overnight. It will take a year or two, but it has a good chance of happening. The US dollar cannot and will not for some time to come be a safe haven for wealth. That is because the dollar and the US economy have been deliberately destroyed.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The flight into gold that we have seen has not been sparked by anticipation of inflation, but by a flight caused by a lack of confidence and trust in central banks. If other major governments have monetary problems they cannot be buyers of US Treasuries. They will have to be sellers of dollars. That will drive the dollar lower, further reduce the demand for US funding, force the Fed to further monetize and create more inflation. That in turn drive the dollar lower, but more importantly it will give gold a life of its own. We have found that this is something the public ad professionals refuse to accept. There is going to be a devaluation of the dollar no matter what people think, or want to think in their world of denial and fantasy. Other letter writers who disagree have recently attacked us. They can disagree and that is fine, but we might remind them that we are the ones who have been correct in our predictions 98% of the time, not them.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">We believe the current dollar rally is unsustainable. If you remember we recommended a short on the dollar at 89.5 on the USDX. It fell to 74. We have just seen a two-week rally from 74 to 78 on very low volume. We had said the rally when it began at 74 could go to 78 to 80. Several more days of trading over the holidays could take it deep within that zone. This is just another rally conjured up by our government led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, which will be doomed to failure. The rally is aided by unsettled conditions in Dubai, Greece, Spain, etc., and the continued viability of the eurozone. In addition, the same groups of criminals have viciously attacked gold and silver in an attempt to take gold below $1,033 and silver below $17.00. That completes the circle of attack. The SEC and the CFTC simply look the other way aiding and abetting the criminals that run our government and markets from behind the scenes.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">It is not surprising that 320 members of the House passed legislation to audit the Fed to find out where trillions of dollars have gone and what the Fed and the Treasury have done to manipulate markets. Just how much monetization is really going on? Has the Fed been buying more than half the Treasuries issued via stealth activity and how long will this continue? Will the Treasury default and officially devalue? Of course they will, it is only a question of time. What will the Fed do with bonds issued by agencies and toxic waste CDOs, and what did they pay for all this garbage? Have they been paying the banks, Wall Street and insurance companies 80% instead of 20% on the dollar, so that taxpayers can pay the bill and these entities, which are insolvent, can be kept functioning? Why is it we could forecast all these events and very few others could? It is because if they did they would be ostracized and they would lose their jobs. That is how systems like this always work. You cannot lay a normal yardstick to what we have seen and what will be an unprecedented future. When the dollar officially devalues in a year to a year and a half, the shock will shake America and the world to its very foundations.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">An audit and investigation of the Fed is on the way and the American public is not going to like what they find. All the failures and criminal activity of the past 96 years will become reality. This coming year will see the Fed forced to monetize massive amounts of government paper, all of which will lead to massive inflation. Inflation will move up very quickly. The groundwork began last May and over the past two months we saw official inflation rise to 1.2% and then 2.4% as real inflation moved up over 8% again. Will we see something similar to what happened in Argentina, Zimbabwe or in the Weimer Republic We do not know. What we do know is it is not going to be good. All the telltale signs are being ignored and for such duplicity a high price will be paid. That is why we predict official devaluation and default. History is explicit; monetization cannot go on forever. Over the last two years the Fed has purchased trillions in what is essentially worthless paper from banks, Wall Street and insurance companies.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The rally in the dollar is transitory, because at the moment Europe’s problems seem greater than ours.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">You have to ask yourself how does a stock market trade within 500 points for three months, when trading volume has fallen? There have been material withdrawals from mutual funds and 73% of trades are of the black box front running variety. The answer is the trading after hours, which has been dominated by your government’s plunge protection team. They cannot continue that indefinitely. There is lots of bad news coming in 2010.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The November medium home price rose 3.8% to $217,400, the highest level since May reflecting the $8,000 tax credit and growing inflation. Year-on-year prices fell 1.9%. The number of new homes on the market fell 235,000, the lowest since April 1971. There are now 7.9-months’ worth of homes for sale, up from 7.2% in October. What has to be added to that is discouraged sellers who have taken their homes off the market, and lenders that have been withholding inventory for sale - a bottoming market is years away.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">Loan demand fell 5% last month. Mortgage applications fell 10.7%, the lowest level in two months. Refi loans fell 10.1% and mortgages fell 11.6%.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">This as foreclosures topped one million. As a result home construction has fallen 83% from its peak. We projected 75% in June of 2005. The decline in building is probably bottoming, but with the inventory overhand it could be many years until we could see a recovery.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">Durable goods orders rise of 0.2% were very disappointing. The experts expected a rise of 0.5%. Wrong as usual.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">For the week ended 12/23 the commercial paper market rose $9.3 billion to $1.160 trillion, still a ghost of its former self.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">Congress, the SEC and FINRA are investigating Goldman Sachs and others in the use of synthetic CDOs, collateralized debt obligations, that we have been hammering for since 2006. Not only were the laws of fair dealing violated, but they were shorting the deals they sold to clients, which they knew had to fall in value, because the ratings they arranged with the raters, S&P, Moody’s and Fitch, were phony from the outset. Yet if you notice there hasn’t been a lawsuit, civil investigation, or criminal charges. The exposure of this activity allowed the banks to profit from the housing collapse, which they deliberately created. Again, another fine and no criminals go to jail. They simply own Washington.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The 10-year T-note yield just rose from 3.20% over the past 18 business days to 3.80%. Look at a chart and it is ominous. The yield is on long-term trend lines that go back to June 2007. It looks like that line could be broken to the downside. The chart is very jagged giving it all the earmarks of manipulation. Our guess is that something happened three weeks ago that we don’t yet understand, but whatever it was foreigners are running away from US sovereign debt, just as we forecast they would. This means the fed could be taking down more than 60% of the auctions of US debt, which means more monetization and more inflation. If the Fed does not continue buying, by creating money out of thin air, support will be broken and yields could quickly move up to 5%, which would further destroy the retail housing market. Such a move would send gold to $1,550 to $1,650. Incidentally, over the past 50 years we have observed that as interest rates rise so does gold and silver, up to a certain point. In this case bank discount rates could move from zero to 5% and gold would rise. After that gold becomes the only vehicle that preserves assets.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">America and England are facing a credit crisis again, as interest rates rise and the Fed feebly attempts to remove quantitative easing, and beginning by withdrawing funds from its various programs. Rating services tell us that if the Fed does not do so the US and UK credit ratings will be lowered. These funds put into the system by the Fed and the Treasury aggregate about $12.7 trillion. We might add the US and the UK are not the only countries enveloped in this situation. We have seen the US ten-year Treasury note yield move from 3.20% to 3.80%. This is the markets way of telling the Fed and the Treasury, that if you continue to do what you have been doing then you will have to pay more interest to do so. Those 10s could easily move to yield 5% in this coming year, putting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage over 6%. That in finality puts the last nail in the coffin of the residential housing market. At the same time since last May inflation has been building and now is at an official 2.4% and unofficially 8-1/4%. The Fed and other major nations are now attempting to hold up the dollar, it having rallied just recently from 74 to 78 on the USDX. Aligned against these nations are a group of commercial currency market makers, who are shorting the dollar in response to its phony rally. The pros will win and the governments will lose. That is a $4.3 trillion a day market of which $2.5 trillion trades in dollars. Not even Superman can control that massive amount of money. Due to the Treasury’s profligacy the Fed we suspect has already bought more than $600 billion in Treasuries; $300 billion that they admit too and $300 billion or more they refuse to tell you about. That is why we need an audit of the Fed.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The Fed, the Bank of England, and others will not be able to ease funds out of the system without allowing deflationary forces to take over. The result will be a downgrade, a run on the dollar and official devaluation and default within the next 1-1/2 years. There is no other way out, as other nations are forced to do the same thing, leaving the only safe haven of wealth preservation in gold and silver related assets. Nothing will compare. All world currencies will fall versus gold. In the meantime, the wages of easing and the inability to withdraw these funds, will lead to a period of inflation if not hyperinflation beginning with a real 14% plus in 2010. After that it is anyone’s guess where inflation will be headed.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 1.27cm;">The present administration is headed in the wrong direction on everything, particularly on spending. Their actions have resulted in short-term bills yielding from zero to .65%, hardly an incentive to own such debt, as the Fed must issue and or roll this debt daily. A bogus temporarily strong dollar supplies a lift and respite for treasury debt for which the only solution is higher rates that are already being anticipated. Some have seen our ideas on this issue as faulty, all we can say is we are the ones with the 98% track record.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">An index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in October for a fifth consecutive month, putting the housing market and economy farther down the path to recovery.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20SA%3AIND" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">index</span></a> increased 0.4 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.2 percent rise in September, the group said today in New York. The gauge was down 7.3 percent from October 2008, the smallest <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20Y%25%3AIND" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">year-over-year</span></a> decline since October 2007. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipated a 7.2 percent drop.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span>If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Yields on benchmark <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">10-year notes</span></a> will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=David+Greenlaw%2C&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">David Greenlaw,</span></a> chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ILM3NAVG%3AIND" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">mortgages</span></a> to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, almost the highest in a decade, Greenlaw said.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Investors are demanding higher returns on government debt, boosting rates this month by the most since January, on concern President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack+Obama%3Fs&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Barack Obama’s</span></a> attempt to revive economic growth with record spending will keep the deficit at $1 trillion. Rising borrowing costs risk jeopardizing a recovery from a plunge in the residential mortgage market that led to the worst global recession in six decades.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">“When you take these kinds of aggressive policy actions to prevent a depression, you have to clean up after yourself,” Greenlaw said in a telephone interview. “Market signals will ultimately spur some policy action but I’m not naive enough to think it will be a very pleasant environment.”<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Yields on the 3.375 percent notes maturing in November 2019 climbed 4 basis points to 3.84 percent at 11 a.m. in London today, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price fell 10/32 to 96 5/32. They have risen 65 basis points this month, the most since April 2004, as government efforts to unfreeze global credit markets lessened the appeal of the securities as a haven.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/12/23/20091223biz-personalincome1223.html?source=nletter-business#" style="color: #020167; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;">Personal incomes</span></a> rose in November at the fastest pace in six months while spending posted a second straight increase, raising hopes that that the recovery from the nation's deep recession might be gaining momentum. [It also should be noted that inflation rose 2.4% on an annualized basis as well, and these are official figures.]<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The Commerce Department says personal incomes were up 0.4 percent in November, helped by a $16.1 billion increase in wages and salaries, reflecting the drop in unemployment that occurred last month.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The gain in incomes helped bolster spending, which rose 0.5 percent in November. Both the income and spending gains were slightly less than economists had expected.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Want to keep IRS auditors away? Keep your earnings under $200,000 and they won't bother you 99 percent of the time.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">IRS enforcement numbers, released Tuesday, show that returns under that amount have a 1 percent chance of getting audited.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Returns showing income of $200,000 and above have a nearly 3 percent audit chance. The percentage jumps to more than 6 percent for returns showing earnings of $1 million or more.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span>New-home sales plunged to their lowest in seven months during November, a bigger-than-expected drop that might have been caused by uncertainty over a government tax incentive.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Sales of single-family homes decreased 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The level was the lowest since 345,000 in April. The plunge wiped out much of the gain made in the new-home market since the January bottom.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 1.2% drop to a 425,000 annual rate for November.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">New-home sales, unlike sales of existing homes, are recorded with the signing of a sales contract and not the closing. A big tax credit for first time buyers was due to expire at the end of November and caused concern in the housing sector. It was extended in November by Congress to next spring.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Another reason for the big drop in new-home sales could be strong demand for used homes. Data this week showed existing-home sales are up more than 40% since the end of last year, with many purchases made for foreclosed property carrying a discounted price tag.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Wednesday's report said new-home sales in October rose 1.8% to 400,000, revised from an originally reported 6.2% increase to 430,000.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Year over year, sales were down 9% since November 2008.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The median price for a new home dropped in November - but not by much. It was down 1.9% to $217,400 from $221,600 in November 2008.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Inventories shrank. There were an estimated 235,000 homes for sale at the end of November. That represented a 7.9 months' supply at the current sales rate. An estimated 240,000 homes were for sale at the end of November, a 7.2 months' inventory.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Commerce's report Wednesday showed November new-home sales fell in three of four regions in the U.S.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">US consumers are increasingly confident about the economy, according to the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which gave a score of 72.5 for the month of December, up from 67.4 in November. The preliminary mid-month index had registered a slightly higher score of 73.4, but the end-of-the-month result shows a continuing upward swing in consumer confidence since October.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">US MBA Mortgage Applications declined by 10.7% on December 18 week.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">U.S. overall consumer confidence improved last week to match its best level of the year, according to an ABC News poll released Tuesday.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The consumer comfort index rose three points to -42 in the week ended Dec. 20.<br />
</div><div align="JUSTIFY" style="font-size: 11pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Still, according to the survey, just 7% of respondents expressed confidence in the economy, the same as last week. But 50% of those polled said their own finances were in good standing, up from 47% the prior week. In assessing the buying climate, 30% of respondents said it was good, up from 29% the week before.<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 15px;"><br />
</span></span></div>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-35457518444886903712010-01-02T08:54:00.001-08:002010-01-02T08:54:31.022-08:00PROTOCOLS FOR ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IN AMERICA<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">NOTE: Elements within the U.S. Government have been threating web site<br />
administrators all over the internet and forcing them to take down the<br />
following article because it's exposes the Bush/Cheney cabal's<br />
involvement in the coming economic collapse of 2008.<br />
</span><br />
Everyone make copies of this article and send it everywhere so<br />
everyone will be fully aware of how the economic collapse was<br />
engineered to happen on purpose.<br />
-----------------------<br />
"Everybody knows that the dice are loaded. Everybody rolls with their<br />
fingers crossed. Everybody knows the war is over. Everybody knows<br />
the good guys lost. Everybody knows the fight was fixed. The poor<br />
stay poor, the rich get rich. That's how it goes, Everybody knows" -<br />
Leonard Cohen<br />
PROTOCOLS FOR ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IN AMERICA<br />
by<br />
Al Martin<br />
And this is how the U.S. Treasury would handle an economic collapse.<br />
It's called the 6900 series of protocols. It would start with<br />
declaring a force majeure, which would immediately be interpreted by<br />
the marketplaces as a de facto repudiation of debt. Then the SEC and<br />
the various regulatory exchanges would anticipate the market's<br />
decline, hour by hour -- when Japan's markets opened the next day,<br />
what would happen when the European markets, and all the inter-<br />
linkages of the global markets. On the second day, US Special Forces<br />
would be dropped in by parachute in the cities where the twelve<br />
Federal Reserve district banks are located.<br />
The origin of these protocols comes from the Department of Defense.<br />
This is contingency planning for a variety of post-collapse scenarios.<br />
Those scenarios would include, obviously, military collapse, World War<br />
III, in other words, and its aftermath. What we're talking about now<br />
is aftermath -- how the aftermath would be handled.<br />
One does not necessarily know how the events would transpire that<br />
would cause the collapse, whether it's military collapse or economic<br />
collapse. In World War III, it would become obvious -- when the<br />
mushroom cloud started to appear over cities.<br />
Economic collapse scenarios were always premised on the basis of a US<br />
declaration of force majeure on debt service. It's a very extensive<br />
scenario. The scenarios are all together, i.e., military, economic,<br />
political and social complete destabilization leading to collapse.<br />
Then they break down individual scenarios. In the economic collapse<br />
scenario, the starting point would be the United States Treasury<br />
declaring a force majeure on debt service, which is de facto<br />
repudiation, and that's how it would be interpreted by the world's<br />
capital marketplaces. Then the scenario goes on from there. The US<br />
Treasury would obviously declare a force majeure sometime after the<br />
European markets had settled down. In other words, they had gone out<br />
on the day, which means 11:38 a.m. EDT, our time. They'd wait until<br />
the European markets closed, and the US markets had been open for a<br />
couple of hours. That's when they'd determine how to begin the process<br />
of unwinding or controlling the collapse to the best extent possible,<br />
mainly because they know that the greatest hedge pressure would be<br />
people seeking to use other markets to hedge their long exposure in<br />
the United States and that the US would be the biggest seller in all<br />
the rest of the world's markets. Therefore you would want to declare<br />
the force majeure when the rest of the world's markets closed. The<br />
declaration of force majeure would be precipitated by the declaration<br />
that the United States is no longer able to service its debt. That's<br />
pretty simple. Who makes that decision? The Treasury Department. The<br />
President does not make that decision. The Secretary of the Treasury<br />
does. He has that authority.<br />
You might ask -- wouldn't he have his arm twisted not to do that?<br />
The answer is that if there isn't any money left to service the debt,<br />
it doesn't make any difference what the current regime might want to<br />
do.<br />
The day of reckoning is now coming. What has happened in the interim,<br />
from 2001 to present, is dynamic, global economic deterioration. The<br />
economic deterioration visited upon the United States by Bushonomics<br />
is not a localized event. It is, in fact, global. We have a planet now<br />
that is sinking into a sea of red ink.<br />
The United States is consuming 80% of the planet's savings rate to<br />
finance its debt. The central banks of Germany, Japan and Saudi Arabia<br />
are no longer the powerhouses they used to be. Their reserves have now<br />
been substantially depleted. They can, therefore, no longer hide the<br />
fact that they own a certain number, likely in the trillions of<br />
dollars, of U.S. Treasury debt that isn't being serviced, because they<br />
can't hide it through bookkeeping tricks anymore because their<br />
reserves are so depleted.<br />
Therefore somebody has covertly been putting demands on the Bush-<br />
Cheney regime for payment. Why do you think 2900 metric tons of gold<br />
is depleted from U.S. inventory since March of `01?<br />
Why do you think that $2 billion in currency seized from Iraq last May<br />
is now unaccounted for?<br />
Someone is putting demands on the Bush-Cheney regime. Someone is<br />
saying to the Bushonian Cabal that -- You've got to start servicing<br />
this debt because we, foreign central banks, are in nations - European<br />
and Asian - whose reserves are now nearly exhausted.<br />
Who could be putting that kind of pressure on them?<br />
It has to be coming from whoever is organizing this thing at the very<br />
top, which I would tend to think has got to be most likely a cabal of<br />
people that would involve Henry Kissinger, James Baker, George<br />
Schultz, possibly William Simon. It would be somebody at the very top<br />
that is familiar with how to do this. It would have to be someone<br />
familiar with finances.<br />
So would this be one faction of a cabal blackmailing or forcing<br />
another faction? No, it's not really blackmailing. It's being done out<br />
of desperation. The German, Japanese and Saudi central banks are<br />
saying to the Bushonian cabal, You've got to start servicing this debt<br />
because we don't have the reserves to cover you anymore. We can no<br />
longer make it appear that the debt is being serviced because our own<br />
reserves are so substantively depleted. Therefore you must begin to<br />
cover this debt. If you don't, then, at some point, we will have to<br />
publicly admit in order to save our own necks -- that we were the end<br />
buyers of a lot of stealth debt, a lot of debt that your Treasury<br />
issued illegally and has never serviced. That would then expose the<br />
whole cabal.<br />
The Kissinger-Baker faction are at the top of how this was done on the<br />
economic side of the equation. They were not the original insiders so<br />
much, but the managers of the conspiracy from the U.S. Treasury, to<br />
wit, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve role-play the part.<br />
Take Henry Kissinger. It may not have occurred to anyone why in the<br />
last 3 years Henry Kissinger has been back in Washington more than he<br />
has in the last 30 years. And why are all these quiet meetings in<br />
Washington with alleged senior Bush-Cheney regime officials, as<br />
foreign news services endlessly put it. It's because Kissinger is the<br />
point man. He's the one that is telling them the disposition of other<br />
foreign central banks.<br />
Kissinger would probably also be involved in transfer or hypothecation<br />
of any assets from the cabal. In other words, they're being stolen<br />
from the American people by the Bush-Cheney regime and the Bushonian<br />
Cabal, and they are being used to hypothecate, transfer, service, or<br />
otherwise carry this debt held by certain foreign central banks.<br />
The process of unraveling has already begun because of ever-spiraling<br />
Bushonian budget deficits. The Bush-Cheney regime, even in its overt<br />
policies (now they're overt political, economic, social and military<br />
policies) is generating $600-billion-plus deficit per year, which is<br />
consuming 80% of the planet's net savings rate.<br />
It doesn't have the slack. In other words, it can't refinance stealth<br />
debt by issuing more stealth debt anymore. Nor can they bleed money<br />
out of the system like they could in the 1980s by hiding it when the<br />
overt policies of the Bush-Cheney regime are already producing a<br />
budget deficit of 6% of Gross Domestic Product. There is no other<br />
mechanism that they could use anymore to hide expansion of debt that<br />
could be used to service said stealth debt, and they are, frankly,<br />
running out of assets that they can steal from the American people.<br />
So the proverbial day of reckoning is coming. The Bush-Cheney regime<br />
(and I give them credit for this) are telling the American people<br />
what's coming, knowing the American people are too stupid to<br />
understand. They are telling the American people about the re-<br />
institution of the Gold Confiscation Act and the sudden scrapping of<br />
the Treasury's emergency post-collapse gold note scheme to maintain<br />
domestic liquidity.<br />
David Walker, US Comptroller General and chief of the GAO has said<br />
that should the Bush-Cheney regime be re-ensconced into power and,<br />
hence, the scourge of Bushonomics persist, that the United States<br />
could no longer service its debt beyond 2009. They're not hiding it<br />
from anybody anymore. They are telling you what's happening. Now, what<br />
does that mean? The key is in what Walker is saying when he says the<br />
debt can no longer be serviced. I've been asked this on the radio<br />
shows. People have noticed what Walker said because he's out in the<br />
news more often than he used to be. It's unusual for the Comptroller<br />
General of the United States, which is a rather arcane position, to be<br />
out in the news so much.<br />
It simply means that when he says the United States will no longer be<br />
able to sustain Bushonian budget deficits, he means that by 2009, if<br />
Bush-Cheney have a second term in office, the United States will be<br />
consuming 100% of the planet's savings rate to finance Bushonian<br />
budget deficits.<br />
Therefore, if the planet can no longer generate any more liquidity to<br />
lend to the United States, one of three things have to happen: A)<br />
There has to be a sudden and dramatic reduction in federal spending.<br />
There are only two places that can come from. There would have to be<br />
an immediate $100-billion cut in defense spending, which would end any<br />
hopes the Republicans had of getting into office for years to come<br />
because it would destroy any confidence the NFWCs (Naïve Flag Waving<br />
Crowd) had in them. Or you would have to scrap the multi-trillion-<br />
dollar Bushonian tax cuts for the Republican rich, something that's<br />
equally unpalatable.<br />
The other option, B, as Paul O'Neill mentioned, is a dramatic increase<br />
in the rate of federal income taxation from the current nominal rate<br />
of 28% to 65%, which is what the Treasury Department estimated would<br />
be required post-2009 to provide the U.S. Treasury with sufficient<br />
revenues to continue to service debt.<br />
The third option, or C, becomes the declaration of a force majeure on<br />
credit service of U.S. Treasury debt by the United States Treasury,<br />
which is tantamount and would be accurately construed as de facto debt<br />
repudiation by the United States of America.<br />
There are other signs to look for. They're not going to happen now,<br />
but if Bush-Cheney is re-elected, you'll begin to see more signs that<br />
the end is coming. I know a lot of people may disagree, but you wait<br />
and see. If Bush-Cheney has a second term, see if they do not<br />
institute some currency expatriation control. See if that doesn't come<br />
in the way Nixon tried it in May-June of 1971.<br />
In the second term, there will be some sort of currency expatriation<br />
control in the United States, but there will also be loopholes that<br />
will allow the large money to escape. The restrictions will apply to<br />
the 10- and 20-thousand-dollar people. It ain't going to apply to the<br />
10- and 20-million-dollar people. It would be self-defeating to do<br />
that.<br />
When that day comes, in other words, when the U.S. Treasury declares a<br />
force majeure on debt, it wouldn't be broad-cast on mainstream media.<br />
There's no sense because the American people don't even understand<br />
what it means. But the announcement would actually be put on the<br />
Federal Reserve wire system, which would, of course, immediately be<br />
picked up by all media outlets anyway.<br />
The U.S. Treasury would declare a force majeure on debt after the<br />
Asian and European markets closed, probably at 12:30 p.m. EDT. The<br />
reason why that hour was always selected is because Asian and European<br />
markets close. It's also the lunch hour for the markets. It's when<br />
you're going to have the fewest people on the floor of the exchanges.<br />
That would be the ideal time to make such an announcement.<br />
A few seconds after that announcement was made, all United States<br />
markets, both equities debt and commodities i.e., stock, bonds,<br />
commodities, that have trading collars or permissible daily limits<br />
would all be limit-offered with pools. Limit-offered means that there<br />
are more sellers at the limit i.e., limit down, than there are buyers.<br />
So-called 'pools' would immediately begin to form, probably a thousand<br />
contracts every few minutes. 'Limit-offered with pools' - this is<br />
trader language. Pools to sell 2,000 lots, 3,000 lots. That means, the<br />
number of sellers over and above the available buyers at the limit-<br />
offered price. That would begin to build.<br />
By 1:00, the news would begin to sink in because it would take awhile<br />
before panic selling would arise from the public. This news is being<br />
released at lunch hour.<br />
A lot of the American people initially would not even understand the<br />
temerity of the news. You would see professional selling first, and as<br />
that professional selling intensified over the afternoon, the SEC, the<br />
CFTC, NASDAQ, and various market regulatory authorities would begin to<br />
institute certain emergency market protocols. This would be the<br />
installation of the so-called 'declaration of fast market conditions,'<br />
for instance; the declaration of 'no more stop orders,' the<br />
declaration of 'fill at any price,' etc. in a desperate bid to<br />
maintain liquidity.<br />
That first day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and related indices<br />
on a percentage basis would lose about 20% of their value by the close<br />
of business that day. The real impact would come overnight when the<br />
American people found out what this was all about and when it was<br />
explained to them.<br />
At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the Tokyo markets would open, and no price would be<br />
affixed for probably three or four hours into the session due to the<br />
avalanche of selling. Once prices were established, the government of<br />
Japan would close all of its financial markets. Europe would not even<br />
open. All European governments would close all capital exchanges the<br />
next day.<br />
The United States would, in order to accommodate global electronic<br />
trading, attempt to open the market on the second day, which they<br />
would do, regardless of price, just to maintain some liquidity. At the<br />
end of Day Two, the Dow Jones and related indices, would have lost two<br />
thirds of their value, and prices would be set accordingly.<br />
On Day Three, the New York Stock Exchange, the SEC and other related<br />
agencies would recommend to the United States Treasury and the Federal<br />
Reserve that all markets be closed. That would be on the morning of<br />
Day Three. Eleven a.m., the Federal Reserve would then order all<br />
domestic banks closed. All of the twelve Federal Reserve district<br />
banks would (30 minutes later) have special U.S. forces parachuted in<br />
and around them to secure whatever gold bullion reserves they had<br />
left.<br />
Day Three, 9:00 p.m., the President of the United States would declare<br />
a state of martial law. All financial transactions would come to an<br />
end. The Treasury would act to formally de-monetize the U.S. dollar<br />
and declare it worthless.<br />
This would be totally unprecedented. In the past, collapses have been<br />
temporary and have been brought back up. But what we're talking about<br />
now is the end.<br />
These protocols that I'm referring to aren't even all that secret.<br />
They were publicly available all through the Clinton era. These are<br />
Treasury protocols that were instituted mostly in the late 1970s when<br />
the Treasury and Federal Reserve began to feel that it was important<br />
to have an emergency-collapse protocol in place.<br />
What precipitated the timing of this was the inflationary spiral of<br />
the late 1970s. The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve were both<br />
concerned that this inflationary spiral, which was occurring not only<br />
domestically but globally, might lead to a global, uncontrollable<br />
hyper-inflation that the Federal Reserve or major central banks could<br />
not stop by traditional means, i.e., by raising interest rates and<br />
contracting money supply.<br />
There was also the recognition, of course, that global central reserve<br />
bank bullion inventories had been so depleted over the previous 30<br />
years that any re-institution of a species currency, even on a<br />
temporary basis, and even within a regional or individual nation-state<br />
basis, was no longer possible.<br />
This is an analogy. In a military scenario, it's like the President of<br />
the United States pushing the final red button -- the commit button.<br />
The Treasury Secretary of the United States has a similar mechanism.<br />
It's called the yellow button, the commit button. The Secretary of<br />
Defense has the same system. This is what happens. Computer program<br />
starts to institute these protocols. Imagine the complexity of trying<br />
the manage all this. I think it's going to happen all simultaneously.<br />
There are hundreds of different agencies involved, both domestically<br />
and internationally. In order to maintain liquidity for as long as<br />
possible, it has to be extremely well-coordinated, and there must be<br />
existing collapse protocols that can be used.<br />
The reason I was familiar with them was because I used to see the U.S.<br />
Treasury 6900 Series Collapse Protocol, 6903, 6904 there'll be A, B,<br />
and so on which keyed in to the Department of Defense to be<br />
incorporated within the Department of Defense's own World War III<br />
scenario and various types of military/ political/ social instability/<br />
war/ pestilence, chaos, etc. scenarios.<br />
All federal agencies had individual collapse protocols that ultimately<br />
got coordinated through the Department of Defense. Obviously, the<br />
Department of Defense would be the ultimate coordinator because it<br />
would need to have special forces available, on a stand-by basis,<br />
ready, that could quickly parachute into areas all over the country,<br />
into the cities particularly, to secure federal properties and assets.<br />
And that's literally how it would begin. By the end of the third day,<br />
it would be all over -- a state of martial law. We're not talking<br />
about war, now; this is just economic collapse.<br />
There's no military implication here, no political, no social<br />
implication or policy directive thereunto. This is strictly economic<br />
collapse. By the end of Day Three, effectively, all banks in the world<br />
will be shut down, all paper currencies will become valueless. Martial<br />
law would be declared. There would be no continuing transactions, at<br />
least for a period of time, of commodities. All providers of fuels and<br />
foods would be shut down automatically.<br />
They have this in great detail too. U.S. Department of Defense Special<br />
117th Assault Unit would parachute in to seize control of the cattle<br />
yards in Oklahoma City. This is how well it's planned. In other words,<br />
economic collapse would automatically involve expansive military<br />
action and control.<br />
By the end of the third day, when you no longer have a domestic medium<br />
of exchange, you have to have secured food and fuel stocks. You've got<br />
to have troops that have secured distribution points where there is<br />
food and fuel stocks, warehouses, tanks, etc. Otherwise people are<br />
just going to go get them, and the people have to know that if they<br />
try to go break into that store and steal that loaf of bread, they're<br />
going to be shot.<br />
Protocols for environmental disasters are called 'scaling-circle<br />
scenarios.' 'Scaling circles' is a Department of Defense euphemism.<br />
It's also used in FEMA, OEM and other emergency management services.<br />
In environmental catastrophes, which are going to become national or<br />
global, it's got to start someplace. It's going to start in one very<br />
small, specific area. Therefore what happens is that the immediate<br />
force containment is the greatest in the first circle, to try to<br />
contain the spread of the disaster and keep it within that circle.<br />
The environmental problem, to whatever extent it's possible, before it<br />
spreads, will be neutralized or mitigated, in order to keep that<br />
catastrophe within that circle, or, if it is likely that it is to<br />
escape that circle, to attack whatever it is in such a fashion as to<br />
mitigate its strength and its ability to contaminate or otherwise<br />
affect other areas.<br />
In the case of earthquakes, for instance, affecting the west coast,<br />
beginning at Mt. Rainier and moving southward -- that's a different<br />
type of scenario. That does not include as much Department of Defense<br />
involvement. It includes separate protocols, wherein mostly FEMA and<br />
OEM act as the senior coordinating agencies between municipal, county<br />
and state disaster and containment, which is called Disaster and<br />
Containment Units. Federal troops would only be brought in for the<br />
purposes of maintaining control.<br />
In a military or economic collapse situation, National Guard units<br />
would provide any spare help they could in combating whatever the<br />
problem is. Federal troops would be used in order to have the specific<br />
authority simply to shoot anyone. There are plans for all sorts of<br />
scenarios. The economic-disaster scenario is the one I always found<br />
the most intriguing because it is the one that is least understood by<br />
the American people.<br />
Military control would be necessary when lines begin to form at the<br />
banks, people trying to access their money. But that wasn't even<br />
anticipated as a big problem. Lines would form at the banks, but it<br />
was not even envisioned until sometime on Day Three because the<br />
American people wouldn't get it. It would be announced that the stock<br />
markets are down 2000 or 3000 points, and since we've always been<br />
taught they'll come back, the people would still be buying stocks.<br />
You could count on everybody remaining in ignorance all the way down<br />
because the American people have never been taught Economics 101. The<br />
American people wouldn't realize the full extent of it until the<br />
markets were closed on the third day, or until the time when they went<br />
down to cash a check and the bank was closed with soldiers out in<br />
front. Then they would go down and see the gas station's closed. They<br />
see the local supermarket has been shuttered, and there's federal<br />
troops in front of it. Then they might begin to catch on. And remember<br />
-- it's not just federal troops. In emergency-collapse protocols, even<br />
before the declaration of a formal state of emergency or a state of<br />
martial law, the local military authorities within any given county or<br />
jurisdiction have the ability to essentially militarize anyone, that<br />
is, any civilian. This would be more than just deputizing civilians.<br />
It's federal. In other words, they would have the ability to<br />
militarize and give military authority to a civilian force. This would<br />
include not only police and the sheriffs and state police, but all<br />
local law enforcement that exists below the state level would be<br />
immediately militarized. They wouldn't take just anybody like they did<br />
in Iraq. It would be like the military when they call for volunteers.<br />
Then they'd have everybody and their brother-in-law volunteering,<br />
waving around the American flag and so on.<br />
You've got a lot of pickup-driving guys in this country with the gun<br />
racks in the back and the Confederate flag flying. So you start waving<br />
the American flag in front of their face and say, Hey, you're going to<br />
get your chance you always wanted -- to fit your potbelly inside an<br />
army uniform and carry a gun and shoot people. How appealing would<br />
that be?<br />
And besides, if you do this, then you're going to get to eat.<br />
In other words, this is how it would unfold over three days, but, in<br />
fact, very few Americans would know what to do about it or how to take<br />
any precautions. They wouldn't have a clue because they don't<br />
understand enough about economics to know what is happening. So that's<br />
what it is -- Economic Armageddon. If the Bush-Cheney regime is re-<br />
installed into power, that is effectively what Comptroller General<br />
David Walker is saying.<br />
In conclusion, since there is very little the people of the United<br />
States can do to protect themselves. We're not going to make any<br />
suggestions of how to protect yourselves because there's very little<br />
you can do.<br />
We could tell you to go out and buy gold coins and bury them in the<br />
coffee can in the back yard and go to your nearest survivalist store,<br />
but, frankly, that's useless. In the last analysis, it's a lot of<br />
hype. There is very little the average US citizen could do.<br />
The only thing that can prevent this, as the Comptroller alluded to<br />
when he was asked by Barbara Walters, How do we prevent reaching the<br />
problem by 2009? He said simply, "A change of regimes."<br />
So how do you prevent it? Don't vote for Bush and Cheney -- and hope<br />
that Bush does not use his emergency powers to cancel or postpone the<br />
election by edict, powers which you, the flag-waving citizens, have<br />
given him.<br />
All flag-waving citizens, be warned. If you want to vote for Bush-<br />
Cheney again, make sure you got plenty of Spam on hand.<br />
Here's an interesting and humorous aside. A couple of days ago, Hormel<br />
Foods, which makes Spam, announced that in the last six months there<br />
have been record sales of Spam in the United States the survivalists'<br />
food of choice. After all, they pride themselves on the fact, as the<br />
spokesman for Hormel said, "It is the only food product you can buy<br />
with an expiration that's 50 years."<br />
When everything goes to hell, when all that man has created has turned<br />
to dust again, the final legacy is going to be Spam. It will be the<br />
last surviving item -- when the anthropologists of 20 thousand years<br />
from now are digging sites and they see these enormous mountains of<br />
unopened cans of Spam They'll have monuments to the past out of Spam.<br />
So if Bush-Cheney has a second term in office, there will be some sort<br />
of currency restriction, like Nixon did in 1971. On April 13, 2004,<br />
Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary John Boine talked about potential<br />
currency restrictions. He used the word that's going to fuel the<br />
flames of the survivalist and gloom-and-doom collapse people.<br />
It's very, very telling that the U.S. Treasury may institute a<br />
restriction on the amount of U.S. dollars that can be converted into<br />
gold.<br />
Furthermore, he intimated (and I suspected that this was coming,<br />
although this wouldn't actually become law until Bush-Cheney was in<br />
office for second term one way or another) that the Bush-Cheney regime<br />
determines that the Gold Confiscation Act gives to Treasury the power<br />
for so-called forced disclosure of gold holdings.<br />
I'm not quite sure of the language of the Gold Confiscation Act from<br />
1933. It just says, "compelled", as in citizens are lawfully compelled<br />
to redeem gold for script. I don't think there was any such provision,<br />
which he was inferring that there is. That was FDR's "Raw Deal" of<br />
1934, when people were coerced into giving up their gold. But nowhere<br />
in this act does it specifically authorize the Treasury to mandate<br />
citizens to report their gold holdings. So if this gets any press at<br />
all, particularly within the circles of gold bugs and so on, watch<br />
out.<br />
Furthermore, on Washington Journal they were talking about how FEMA<br />
has recommended to the Office of Homeland Security to have increased<br />
restrictions regarding citizen hoarding of long-term food and fuel<br />
supplies. That's pretty sinister too.<br />
What they're talking about is the purchase of long-term so-called<br />
stores of survival food. FEMA was talking about some sort of<br />
restriction preventing people from accumulating food stores; putting<br />
it simply, that's what it means. The second point was to increase<br />
restrictions that already exist.<br />
FEMA was recommending even tighter restrictions on citizens building<br />
their own private property underground storage tanks for the purposes<br />
of long-term storage of fuel. The real intent of this is is threefold:<br />
a) to restrict citizens' ability to hoard food; b) restrict citizens'<br />
ability to hoard long-term storage of fuel; c) the forced<br />
identification of citizens to reveal food and fuel stocks they may be<br />
hoarding.<br />
And that, in my opinion, is the real essence. The Bush-Cheney regime<br />
was scared of having the FEMA angle put into the equation because they<br />
knew what it means and how people would interpret it.<br />
They have tried to use environmental legislation to restrict people's<br />
ability to build fuel storage facilities on their own property -- to<br />
get around what the true intent of that was.<br />
But the bigger picture is that if you start to limit citizens' ability<br />
to hoard fuel and food and shake them up by potential forced<br />
identification of gold holdings or forced redemption.<br />
In other words, what you don't want is citizens who have the ability<br />
to store a lot of food and fuel and to own gold because they would be<br />
able to resist state control in the future.<br />
You've got to have every citizen on a rationing card to control the<br />
civilian population. You can't have citizens out there hoarding food<br />
and fuel because then people can say to government,"I ain't taking a<br />
rationing card, baby, with my national ID card. I don't have to. You<br />
can't control me through food and fuel and ever-worthless paper<br />
currency."<br />
I used to make fun of these people. But now, things have come full<br />
circle on this debate. The Bush-Cheney regime is making it<br />
increasingly clear through their small changes in policy. Not a lot of<br />
people monitor these decisions, but I do. And the pattern is becoming<br />
increasingly clear.<br />
In fact, I would believe that those of the survivalist mentality (the<br />
food, fuel, the gold coins in the coffee can in the back yard) people<br />
who think that way will be ultimately vindicated - if George Bush has<br />
a second term in office.<br />
People should quit making fun of them because they would be vindicated<br />
- even though they were all burned out, twenty-dollared to death,<br />
buying books and tapes, and discredited by mainstream media. It may<br />
sound like a hollow victory, but it won't be a hollow victory for them<br />
- them that's got the Spam...Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-1927606761122410602010-01-02T08:41:00.001-08:002010-01-02T08:41:20.241-08:00Obamanomics: How Barack Obama Is Bankrupting You and Enriching His Wall Street Friends, Corporate Lobbyists, and Union Bosses<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px;"><br />
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<strong>BOOK FORUM<br />
Tuesday, January 12, 2010<br />
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Featuring the author, <strong>Timothy P. Carney</strong>, Lobbying Editor, <em>Washington Examiner</em>; with comments by <strong>Uwe Reinhardt</strong>, James Madison Professor of Political Economy, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University; and <strong>Ross Douthat</strong>, <em>New York Times</em> columnist. Moderated by<strong>Michael F. Cannon</strong>, Director of Health Policy Studies, Cato Institute.<br />
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</div>Are Big Business and Big Government enemies? According to journalist and author Tim Carney, that story is a myth. Both Republicans and Democrats bilk taxpayers to benefit their corporate allies and K Street lobbyists, whether the issue is health care reform, climate change, or defense spending. The Obama administration's bailouts and "stimulus" package(s) have taken the taxpayer-bilking to historic levels–a remarkable achievement, considering the previous administration. And at the same time the president promises his health care overhaul will put patients first, the legislation he supports has corporate lobbyists once again lined up at the trough.<br />
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<strong>If you plan to watch this event online, there is no need to register.</strong>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-61374981708429486542010-01-02T08:39:00.000-08:002010-01-02T08:39:32.602-08:00Planning for an EU-USA Common Market<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px;"><br />
</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span class="mediumtext1" style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none;">Bill Hahn<br />
<a href="http://www.jbs.org/node/7067" style="text-decoration: none;">JBS</a><br />
Wednesday February 13, 2008</span><br />
<div align="left" class="post sticky">The Transatlantic Policy Network seeks EU-style integration for the European Union and the USA by 2015.<br />
Follow this link to the original source: "<a href="http://thenewamerican.com/node/7027" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Creating a Transatlantic Common Market"</a><br />
Even with all of the recent attention given to the North American Union (NAU) and its deep integration of trade markets in Canada, Mexico and the USA, it seems another effort at trade integration is underway. This time the plan is for greater integration of the European Union and the United States, and much like the Security and Prosperity Partnership of the NAU, the Transatlantic Union (TAU) is being quietly created.<br />
According to an exclusive at TheNewAmerican.com, a little known NGO (non governmental organization) called the Transatlantic Policy Network, has been working behind the scenes to advance plans to merge the United States with Europe. The article states, "Working carefully, if quietly, since the early 1990s, the organization has moved quickly to gain the agreement of leaders on both sides of the ocean that further integration is necessary and desirable. Now, the organization is much closer to achieving its goals than anyone would suspect."<br />
<span class="unnamed2" style="font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal;">(Article continues below)</span><br />
<br />
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A paper published early last year by the organization entitled, "Completing the Transatlantic Market," states: "It is time for a complementary, top down approach to transatlantic cooperation through a joint commitment by the European Union and the United States to a roadmap for achieving a Transatlantic Market by 2015 and creation of an overarching framework for dialogue and action to achieve that goal."<br />
The big difference between the NAU and the TAU is that Congress has already passed legislation embracing the TAU concept. H. Res. 390 was passed in late 2003 and states that the "United States and the European community are aware of their shared responsibility, not only to further transatlantic security, but to address other common interests such as environmental protection, poverty reduction, combating international crime and promoting human rights, and to work together to meet those transnational challenges which affect the well-being of all." To do this, TheNewAmerican.com points out that laws and regulations would need to be harmonized before any integration could begin.<br />
While Americans were alarmed at this step in the NAU, especially considering how Mexico would need to be brought up to the US and Canada’s standards, we need to be similarly alarmed at the effort to meld the US into a transatlantic common market. Remember that the EU started as a common market that has now morphed into EU citizens not being able to vote on a new constitution, not having local representation (Parliament is forced to regularly travel to Brussels to approve or disapprove a mountain of legislation that they have not seen before) and not having individual national sovereignty for each of the 27 member countries. Rather, all countries are lumped together under a centralized EU bureaucracy.<br />
The political union of Europe did not appear over night, but it did evovle from a European common market. Likewise, the U.S. would not likely undergo a political merger with Europe in the short term. But the natural progression, as demonstrated by the experience of Europe since World War II, is for economic union of the type required for a common market to lead, inexorably, to political union at some point in the future. This is just the sort of entangling alliance the Founding Fathers warned us about. They intended the USA to be independent of Europe. Present day Americans would do well to heed their wisdom.<br />
</div>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-52040925964132781692009-11-28T15:26:00.000-08:002009-11-28T15:26:48.089-08:001919: Betrayal and the Birth of Modern Liberalism<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif, serif; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px;">1919: Betrayal and the Birth of Modern Liberalism</span><br />
<div class="story_dek" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif, serif; font-size: 10pt; font-style: italic; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 6px;">Disillusionment with Woodrow Wilson changed the American Left forever.<br />
</div><div class="pub_date" style="color: #666666; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">22 November 2009<br />
</div><div id="story_text"><div class="story_img" style="background-color: #fcf0ca; color: #666666; float: right; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 14px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 24px; width: 297px;"><img alt="In 1916, German saboteurs destroyed Black Tom Island in New York Harbor." src="http://www.city-journal.org/assets/images/eon1120fs.jpg" /><br />
<div class="credit" style="color: #666666; font-family: verdana; font-size: 8px; padding-right: 4px; text-align: right; text-transform: uppercase;">BETTMANN/CORBIS<br />
</div><div class="caption" style="color: #666666; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;">In 1916, German saboteurs destroyed Black Tom Island in New York Harbor.<br />
</div></div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Geneva, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px;">T</span>oday’s state-oriented liberalism, we are often told, was the inevitable extension of the pre–World War I tradition of progressivism. The progressives, led by President Woodrow Wilson, placed their faith in reason and the better nature of the American people. Expanded government would serve as an engine of popular goodwill to soften the harsh rigors of industrial capitalism. Describing the condition of his fellow intellectuals prior to World War I, Lewis Mumford exclaimed that “there was scarcely one who did not assume that mankind either was permanently good or might sooner or later reach such a state of universal beatitude.” After the unfortunate Republican interregnum of the 1920s, so the story goes, this progressivism, faced with the Great Depression, matured into the full-blown liberalism of the New Deal.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">But a central strand of modern liberalism was born of a sense of betrayal, of a <i>rejection</i> of progressivism, of a shift in sensibility so profound that it still resonates today. More precisely, the cultural tone of modern liberalism was, in significant measure, set by a political love affair gone wrong between Wilson and a liberal Left unable to grapple with the realities of Prussian power. Initially embraced by many leftists as a thaumaturgical leader of near-messianic promise, Wilson came to be seen—in the wake of a cataclysmic war, a failed peace, repression at home, revolution abroad, and a country wracked by a “Red Scare”—as a Judas. His numinous rhetoric, it was concluded, was mere mummery.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">One strand of progressives grew contemptuous not only of Wilson but of American society. For the once-ardent progressive Frederick Howe, formerly Wilson’s Commissioner of Immigration, the prewar promise of a benign state built on reasoned reform had turned to ashes. “I hated,” he wrote, “the new state that had arisen” from the war. “I hated its brutalities, its ignorance, its unpatriotic patriotism, that made profit from our sacrifices and used it to suppress criticism of its acts. . . . I wanted to protest against the destruction of my government, my democracy, my America.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Making a decisive break with Wilson and their optimism about America, the disenchanted progressives renamed themselves “liberals.” The progressives had been inspired by a faith in democratic reforms as a salve for the wounds of both industrial civilization and power politics; the new liberals saw the American democratic ethos as a danger to freedom both at home and abroad.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Geneva, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px;">W</span>ilson, a devout Presbyterian and former college professor, was the first and probably the only president to have studied socialism systematically. In 1887, as a young man, he responded to the growth of vast industrial monopolies that threatened individual freedom by arguing that “in fundamental theory socialism and democracy are almost if not quite one and the same. They both rest at bottom upon the absolute right of the community to determine its own destiny and that of its members. Men as communities are supreme over men as individuals.” In the 1912 presidential race, he said that “when you do socialism justice, it is hardly different from the heart of Christianity itself.” Four years later, he brushed aside intense opposition to appoint two pro-labor-union justices to the Supreme Court and backed railroad workers in their fight for an eight-hour day. The president imposed a surtax on the wealthy and won the support of such prominent socialists as Upton Sinclair and Helen Keller.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">For many on the left, Wilson’s 1916 campaign slogan, “He kept us out of war,” opened the way for the emergence of a more vibrant American culture. The war in Europe seemed far away, and progressives were for the moment imbued with an impregnable optimism. The administration’s critique of European power politics and talk of the need for international law gave pacifist Jane Addams “unlimited faith in the president.” When Meyer London, the antiwar socialist congressman from New York’s Lower East Side, and Socialist Party leader Morris Hilquit visited the White House to talk about the prospects for peace in Europe, they came away concluding that Wilson’s “sympathies are entirely with us.” Similarly, as Thomas Knock recounts in his book <i>To End All Wars</i>, after visiting the White House, the leaders of the American Union Against Militarism felt that “the President had taken us into his bosom.” Wilson, they noted, “always referred to the Union Against Militarism as though he were a member of it” and talked about the need to create “a family of nations.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">The courtship between Wilson and the leftists was nurtured by the hard fought 1916 presidential election. Wilson faced a Republican Party that had recovered from a 1912 split between Teddy Roosevelt’s breakaway Bull Moose progressives and anti-reform regulars to coalesce around Supreme Court Justice Charles Evan Hughes. As war raged in Europe, the incumbent narrowly won by bringing sizable numbers of Bull Moosers (who admired Germany’s proto-welfare state) and Eugene Debs’s Socialists into his “peace camp.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Even after the U.S. entered the war in April 1917, pushed by Germany’s declaration of unrestricted submarine warfare and the public revelation of the Kaiser’s plans for an alliance with Mexico to reconquer the Southwest, Wilson maintained his strong ties with the largely antiwar Left. The very speech in which he asked for a congressional declaration of war also welcomed the Russian revolution that had overthrown the czar and put the socialist Alexander Kerensky (temporarily) in power. Wilson effusively, if inaccurately, described the revolution as the fulfillment of the Russian people’s long struggle for democracy, and Secretary of State Robert Lansing declared that it “had removed the one objection to affirming that the European War was a war between Democracy and Absolutism.” Some progressives even backed America’s entry. The progressive animus toward corrupt and overmighty party bosses and autocratic monarchists was “readily transferred to an overbearing Kaiser and a hegemonic war machine,” notes historian Morton Keller.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Wilson insisted on referring to the United States not as an ally of England and France but as an “associated power,” and he made a point of keeping U.S. forces strictly under American command, rankling the British and French, whom he regarded as imperialists. Eight months later, shortly after Lenin had taken power in Russia, Wilson expressed ambivalence about Bolshevism: “My heart is with them, but my mind has a contempt for them.” Yet Wilson’s “Fourteen Points, his message of good luck to the ‘republic of labor unions’ in Russia . . . his warning to the Allied powers that their treatment of Bolshevik Russia would be the ‘acid test’ of their ‘good will . . . intelligence and unselfish sympathy’: these moves were immensely impressive to us,” explained magazine editor Max Eastman, speaking for many leftists and progressives. Indeed, when Russian War Commissar Leon Trotsky coined the now famous concept of the “fellow traveler,” he was referring to Wilson. Trotsky sensed that the American president shared the Bolsheviks’ hatred of European imperialism, and he thought that Soviet Russia and a reformed America would travel on parallel tracks into a brighter future.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Geneva, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px;">W</span>hile Wilson increasingly spoke of international comity, relations between ethnic groups within the United States were breaking down. The Kaiser’s aggression in Eastern Europe prompted pitched battles between Germans and Slavs in the streets of Chicago. At the same time, nearly half a million Germans in America returned home to fight for the fatherland. Charles John Hexamer, president of the National German-American Alliance, financed in part by the German government, insisted that Germans needed to maintain their separate identity and not “descend to the level of an inferior culture.” Germans even began attacking that inferior culture. The most important instance of German domestic sabotage was the spectacular explosion on Black Tom Island in the summer of 1916, which shook a sizable swath of New York City and New Jersey. The man-made peninsula in New York Harbor was a key storage and shipping point for munitions sold to the British and French. The bombing sank the peninsula into the sea, killed seven, and damaged the Statue of Liberty. Wilson denounced Germany’s supporters in America: “Such creatures of passion, disloyalty, and anarchy must be crushed out.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">The government responded with repression, as journalist Ann Hagedorn chronicles in <i>Savage Peace: Hope and Fear in America</i>. Under the Sedition Act of 1918, people were sentenced to 10 years in prison for saying that they preferred the Kaiser to Wilson; others were jailed for mocking salesmen of Liberty Bonds, which supported the war effort. Most famously, socialist leader Debs was jailed for criticizing conscription.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Wilson placed George Creel, a journalist, socialist, and strong supporter of child labor laws and women’s suffrage, in charge of ensuring home-front morale through the Committee for Public Information. But the Committee, which Creel described as “the world’s greatest adventure in advertising,” wildly overshot its mark, encouraging the banning of everything German, from Beethoven to sauerkraut to teaching the German language. The Justice Department and the attorney general, Thomas Gregory, encouraged local vigilantism against Germans, giving the American Protective League, a quarter-of-a-million-strong nativist organization, semi-official status to spy on those suspected of disloyalty. The League went out of its way to break up labor strikes as well, while branding its critics Reds.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Responding to the League’s excesses, Wilson declared that he’d “rather the blamed place should be blown up than persecute innocent people.” But in the next breath he said, “Woe be to the man or group of men that seeks to stand in our way.” Despite his misgivings, Wilson deferred to Gregory’s judgment and refrained from taking action against extremists. Only after the armistice ended the war in November 1918 did Wilson, heeding the advice of incoming attorney general A. Mitchell Palmer, move to end government cooperation with the League. But by now, the disparity between Wilson’s call for extending liberty abroad and the suppression of liberty at home had become a running sore for disenchanted progressives.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Geneva, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px;">T</span>he armistice largely ended the fighting in Europe, but it opened a new chapter in hostilities at home: the Red Scare. Back in March, the Bolsheviks’ effectively unconditional surrender to the Germans at Brest-Litovsk had created a cat’s cradle of anticommunist fear intertwined with hostility to the Huns. Germany got control of the Baltic states, Poland, Belarus, and the Ukraine, with their attendant coal and oil resources—freeing the Kaiser’s army to focus on the Western front, to deadly effect. Lenin’s return to Russia in April 1917 by way of a sealed railroad car supplied by Berlin was now seen as proof, and not only by conspiratorialists, that the Bolshevik leader was a German agent.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Progressives and leftists, counseled by Raymond Robbins, who had worked for Wilson in 1912 and served as an unofficial ambassador to the Bolsheviks, adopted a counter-conspiracy ethos that persists even today. Smitten by Bolshevism, Robbins wrote to Lenin that “it has been my eager desire . . . to be of some use in interpreting this new democracy to the people of America.” Robbins also mistakenly blamed the U.S. for forcing Lenin to agree to Germany’s harsh terms at Brest-Litovsk. Over the next several years, explains historian Peter Filene, Robbins’s efforts helped shape the views of many American progressives. They became enraged when Wilson gave in to pressure from France and England, both suffering enormous casualties on the western front, and provided half-hearted American military support to a campaign that tried to force the Bolsheviks back into the war. Filene points out that for progressives, the “betrayal” of which most Americans accused the Bolsheviks was actually an American perfidy.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Here too, Wilson, juggling principle and practicality, proved strikingly inconstant. In the words of German scholar George Schild, “the Wilson who agreed to the Allied intervention [against the Soviets] in the summer of 1918” and the Wilson who just one year later in Paris helped save the Soviet Union by insisting that the Germans relinquish their conquests on the eastern front “almost seem like two different people.” Faced with the Soviet challenge and bearing the new ideology of universal democracy, Wilson floated the idea that the Bolsheviks should be invited to the peace conference. (Churchill blocked the suggestion.) Wilson the progressive argued that “war won’t defeat Bolshevism, food will.” Capitalism, Wilson argued, had to reform itself to stave off Bolshevik barbarism.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Wilson’s efforts to reconstruct Europe would largely fail, not only because the U.S. refused to join the League of Nations, but because the task at hand was undoable; what the war had sundered could not be put back together. Many former Wilson supporters were angry and disillusioned with the meager fruits of a war that had failed to make the world safe for democracy. But those feelings were shared widely across the political spectrum. Those who were soon to call themselves liberals were particularly provoked by wartime conscription, the repression of civil liberties, and the wildly overwrought fears of Bolshevism at home.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Geneva, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px;">A</span>lready in 1918, when the war was still raging, labor unions, emboldened by a surge in membership and squeezed by an inflation-triggered decline in living standards, had engaged in a wave of strikes, some of them repressed by the American Protective League, local police forces, and agents of the Pinkerton National Detective Agency. Walkouts led by the Industrial Workers of the World, known for work sabotage, seemed particularly ominous. IWW members, known as Wobblies, sometimes described themselves as Lenin’s advance guard. At the end of the year, in the wake of the armistice, New York mayor John Hylan banned the socialist red flag at public gatherings, and shortly thereafter a socialist rally at Madison Square Garden was broken up by 500 soldiers and sailors. The bad blood endured. On the first anniversary of the war’s end, American Legionnaires and Wobblies clashed in Centralia, Washington. Six Wobblies were killed.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Every strike, confrontation, and racial incident was taken, on both left and right, as a manifestation of Bolshevism. Every challenge to the existing social order, no matter how justified, wound up attributed to the red menace. African-Americans’ so-called “uppityness”—insufficient deference to whites—was blamed on homegrown Bolshevism and met with lynchings and a resurgence of the Ku Klux Klan. White attacks on blacks set off black riots in Chicago and Washington that federal troops were called in to suppress.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">The Red Scare intensified in June 1919, when Attorney General Palmer was nearly killed by a terrorist bomb planted in his Georgetown home. Bombs went off in seven other cities the same night. The bombers were probably from the Galleanisti group of Italian anarchists, which included the as-yet unknown Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti, notes Beverley Gage in <i>The Day Wall Street Exploded</i>. But the Russian Bolsheviki were seen as responsible, reigniting the intense, hysterical nationalism of the war years. Palmer, who subsequently claimed to have a list of 60,000 subversives, engaged in a series of warrantless raids aimed at capturing the mostly immigrant red radicals, some of whom were jailed or shipped back to Russia. With no reproach from Wilson, Palmer trampled on civil liberties and harassed the innocent as well as the likely guilty. Then came the famed Wall Street bombing of September 1920, which claimed the lives of 38 New Yorkers and injured 400; like the Palmer attack, it was probably perpetrated by the Galleanisti anarchists, but the Bolsheviks again took the blame.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">An aggressive nationalism and an accelerated Americanization became political twins. Both demanded something that, with the partial exception of the Civil War North, had never before existed in America—a coherent, irrefragable governmental power. In Europe, war had become bound up with revolution; in the U.S., the war, together with the Bolshevik challenge, called up the seemingly un-American concept of a General Will—a 100 percent Americanism that brooked no opposition. Progressives’ disenchantment with America intensified.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Even Prohibition contributed to progressives’ growing sense of estrangement from the country. Before the war, progressives had broadly supported Prohibition as a means to protect working-class families from the economic depredations of drink. But after the war, the emerging liberals were disturbed by what they saw as cultural continuation of wartime repression. “Like most sensible people,” shouted liberal Harold Stearns, “I regard prohibition as an outrage and a direct invitation to revolution.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">The silver lining of the wartime-spawned repression was that it laid the groundwork for the modern interpretation of the First Amendment that would eventually extend free-speech rights to individuals harassed not only by the federal government but by states and localities as well. The strongest section of Hagedorn’s <i>Savage Peace</i> deals with the key case in advancing this new understanding. Jacob Abrams, a Russian Jewish immigrant who worked as a bookbinder, had printed anarchist leaflets in English and Yiddish and dropped them from buildings on New York’s Lower East Side. The pamphlets bitterly denounced Wilson’s cooperating with England and France in trying to force Russia’s government back into the war against Germany. Zealous prosecutors saw the leaflets as violations of the Espionage Act, which made it a crime to undermine American wartime policy. Abrams, sentenced to 20 years in jail, would eventually be deported.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">In 1919, the Supreme Court upheld Abrams’s conviction. But in his dissent, Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, while agreeing that “speech that produces or is intended to produce a clear and<i>imminent</i> danger” can be prosecuted, maintained that he saw no such danger in Abrams’s leaflets, which he described as “silly” writings by an “unknown man.” Holmes’s underlying reasoning would prove extraordinarily influential. Like John Stuart Mill, Holmes found that a maximum of free speech was essential for a successful society. America, he argued, had an interest in discovering truth available only through “the marketplace of ideas,” where competing viewpoints are compelled to make their best case.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Geneva, sans-serif, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px;">P</span>almer had hoped to ride the Red Scare into the White House. But within a year the amiable, if ineffectual, Warren G. Harding of Ohio was ensconced in Washington, along with his card-playing cronies. The crusade that had ended abroad was brought to a close at home. Harding released Debs from prison and returned America to what he dubbed “normalcy.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">For intellectuals and writers who had anticipated utopia in 1916, however, the postwar years brought anger and intensified alienation. The war, said writer Floyd Dell, had produced a generation of young minds “trained in disillusion.” They felt betrayed by Wilson, who had not only suppressed civil liberties but had tried to force Russia back into the war and made compromises with European imperialism at Versailles. They disdained a society that had supported both the Red Scare and Prohibition. In the words of an influential young liberal, “we crushed German militarism only to find that we ourselves had adopted many of its worst features.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Literary critic Malcolm Cowley spoke for many intellectuals in the wake of the war: “We believed that we had fought for an empty cause, that the Germans were no worse than the Allies, no better, that the world consisted of fools and scoundrels.” Critic Harold Stearns, in his seminal 1919 book <i>Liberalism in America</i>, asserted bitterly that “in Soviet countries there is no fact of freedom of the press and no pretense that there is. In America today there is in fact no freedom of the press and we only make the matter worse by pretending that there is.” The state, said the soured progressive Frederick Howe, “seemed to want to hurt people; it showed no concern for innocence. . . . It was not my America, it was something else.”<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">What followed was not so much protest as simmering scorn. In 1919, the Germanophile H. L. Mencken, writing in <i>The New Republic</i>, called sarcastically for honoring the civilian heroes who had suppressed Beethoven by bedizening them with bronze badges and golden crosses. Mencken ridiculed the mass of Americans who had backed “Wilson’s War,” branding them a “timorous, sniveling, poltroonish, ignominious mob”; a great admirer of Kaiser Wilhelm, he denigrated American democracy as “the worship of jackals by jackasses.” Taking its cues from Mencken, the liberalism that emerged from 1919 was contemptuous of American culture and politics. For liberals, the war years had shown that American society and democracy were themselves agents of repression. These sentiments deepened during the 1920s and have been an ongoing current in liberalism ever since.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">The new liberal ethos was not without its virtues. In picking their fights with Prohibition and their former hero Wilson, liberals encouraged the sense of tolerance and appreciation of differences that would, over time, mature into what came to be called pluralism. “The root of liberalism,” wrote Stearns, “is hatred of compulsion, for liberalism has the respect for the individual and his conscience and reason which the employment of coercion necessarily destroys.” Though not always observed by liberals themselves, the call for an urbane temper would come to mark liberalism at its best.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">The underside of this new sensibility was an inverted moralism and a quasi-aristocratic hauteur that has dogged political liberalism down to the present day. “Something oppressed” the liberals, wrote Cowley in 1934; “some force was preventing them from doing their best work.” At the time, that “something” was “the stupidity of the crowd, it was hurry and haste, it was Mass Production, Babbittry, Our Business Civilization; or perhaps it was the Machine.” As this current carried into the 1950s, what oppressed the liberals became affluence, suburbia, two-car garages, and backyard barbecues.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;">Most recently, the liberal plaint has been taken up by the aging but affluent “68ers,” who supported Barack Obama’s presidential campaign because they saw themselves as victims of American society. If they had lived to see it, their progenitors of 1919 would have smiled in recognition.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: georgia, serif, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 21px;"><i>Fred Siegel is a contributing editor to </i>City Journal<i> and a visiting professor at St. Francis College in Brooklyn.</i><br />
<i><a href="http://www.city-journal.org/2009/eon1122fs.html">http://www.city-journal.org/2009/eon1122fs.html</a></i><br />
</div></div>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-22559887476952401212009-10-26T11:32:00.001-07:002009-10-26T11:32:43.052-07:00Las redes sociales como herramienta de análisis estructural input-output<div align="center" class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
</div><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc427669722;"></span> <div align="right" class="BodyTextIndent3" style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21.3pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.0pt;">Ana Salomé García Muñiz</span><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="right" class="BodyTextIndent3" style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21.3pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.0pt;">Carmen Ramos Carvajal <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="right" class="BodyTextIndent3" style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21.3pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.0pt;">Universidad de Oviedo- Departamento de Economía Aplicada <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyTextIndent2" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Abstract</span></b><b><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Uno de los aspectos fundamentales que posibilita el conocimiento en profundidad de una economía es la realización de un análisis de su estructura productiva. Dicho análisis supone una importante ayuda no sólo en la toma de decisiones de política económica, sino también constituye un requisito indispensable y previo a las tareas de predicción necesarias en un contexto empresarial.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El estudio de una economía puede abordarse desde muy diversas ópticas, una de las cuales es el enfoque input-output, el cual permite analizar conjuntamente las relaciones intersectoriales de una economía y su demanda agregada, con lo cual se dispone de un conocimiento integrado de la actividad económica. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyTextIndent3" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt; text-indent: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;">Consideramos la teoría de redes como una importante “herramienta”, a nuestro juicio poco explotada en el ámbito económico, que constituye un marco general de estudio dentro del cual podemos encuadrar el análisis input-output. Esta teoría permite simplificar el esquema de relaciones surgido entre los sectores de una economía y, por lo tanto, favorecer la comprensión del mismo. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar las relaciones interindustriales bajo la óptica de la teoría de las redes sociales y, al mismo tiempo, efectuar una comparación entre los resultados así obtenidos y los que se derivan de la aplicación de los métodos input-output clásicos. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">1. Introducción </span></b><span style="mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El análisis input-output es una importante herramienta en los estudios de economía y, en particular, de economía regional, ya que permite un conocimiento integrado de la misma al proporcionar información no sólo de las relaciones existentes entre los distintos sectores, sino también sobre su demanda agregada. El esquema contable recogido en toda tabla input-output refleja las interdependencias en la estructura productiva analizada a través del conjunto de relaciones intersectoriales consideradas.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El modelo clásico input-ouput de Leontief (1951) se ha empleado habitualmente en el análisis de la estructura de una economía, posibilitando la realización de simulaciones y predicciones sobre impactos externos en la estructura económica. La comprensión a partir del mismo de las relaciones intersectoriales, entendidas como flujos de producción, ha constituido, además, uno de los pilares en los estudios de localización de ejes de crecimiento, necesarios en la planificación de toda política industrial coordinada.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">A pesar de sus conocidas limitaciones (Uriel, 1997; Muñoz, 1994, Pulido y Fontela, 1993) existe un consenso generalizado sobre el adecuado comportamiento de los coeficientes clásicos de Chenery y Watanabe, Rasmussen o Streit, para el estudio de las transacciones intersectoriales y su interdependencia dentro de la estructura productiva en cuestión. Estas medidas aplicadas tradicionalmente<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a> permiten obtener una visión general de la economía regional o nacional, ya que informan sobre las relaciones directas e indirectas entre las ramas de actividad perfilando los sectores claves en el funcionamiento del entramado económico.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Frente a esta óptica clásica de análisis, planteamos en este trabajo una alternativa, cuanto menos enriquecedora, de estudio del marco input-output. Un nuevo enfoque basado en un instrumento, a nuestro juicio poco explotado aún en el ámbito económico, como es la teoría de redes sociales. Es apenas hace diez años, en torno a los años noventa, cuando los economistas han empezado a emplear esta técnica “conscientemente”<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[3]</span></span></span></span></a> en sus estudios de mercado (Rauch y Casella, 2001). <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Este trabajo es un primer paso de un estudio más ambicioso, en el que pretendemos reformular el análisis estructural input-output a partir de la teoría de redes sociales.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La aplicación de esta teoría en el ámbito del análisis input-output presenta un gran potencial al integrar en su desarrollo cuestiones tan relevantes como las posiciones relativas de los sectores, su orientación o los senderos por donde circula la influencia económica dentro de la estructura considerada. Permite, por lo tanto, una notable simplificación del esquema de relaciones intersectoriales, ventajas que apenas han sido aprovechadas aún en este marco. Consideramos el trabajo de Morillas (1983), en el que se analizan las relaciones intersectoriales a partir de la teoría de grafos, como el antecedente de la aplicación de la disciplina de las redes sociales.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">En este documento ofrecemos una alternativa a los indicadores clásicos (coeficientes de Rasmussen, Chenery-Watanabe y Streit, entre otros) en el estudio de ramas clave en la economía. Bajo la óptica de las redes, la determinación de la posición de los sectores en la estructura económica a través de medidas de centralidad, establecerá la influencia e importancia de los mismos en la configuración de las transacciones bajo un nuevo enfoque.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">A continuación, se plantea tras la especificación de la red económica considerada, unos indicadores de centralidad sobre la estructura analizada y sus similitudes o divergencias con las medidas tradicionales. Se concluye con un breve resumen de los resultados obtenidos.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">2. Una tabla input-output como una red de relaciones intersectoriales<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El concepto de red social es sencillo, consiste en un conjunto de actores entre los que se establece una serie de vínculos. Pueden estar constituidas por un número más o menos amplio de actores y una o más clases de relaciones entre pares de elementos. En palabras de R. Hanneman<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[4]</span></span></span></span></a>: <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Quotation"><span style="mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Para entender acertadamente una red social es necesario realizar una descripción completa y rigurosa de la estructura de sus relaciones como punto de partida para el análisis. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">En el análisis de una red se considera la estructura de las relaciones en las que cada actor se encuentra involucrado, es más, estos actores se describen a través de sus conexiones, las cuales se muestran tan relevantes como ellos mismos. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El estudio de una red social se efectúa fundamentalmente a partir de dos grandes grupos de técnicas estrechamente relacionadas: la teoría de grafos y la teoría de matrices. Ambas permiten representar y describir una red de una manera sistemática y, por lo tanto, posibilitarán una más sencilla aproximación al estudio de las mismas, así como clarificar determinados comportamientos o actitudes.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Una tabla input-output (TIO) es una descripción detallada, en términos monetarios, del proceso productivo y de los flujos de bienes y servicios existentes en un espacio geográfico concreto durante el período de un año. Constituye una matriz en la que se recogen los flujos entre diferentes sectores de una economía, es decir, las compras y ventas entre las distintas ramas. A partir de los valores que aparecen en la tabla se pueden conocer las similitudes y diferencias existentes entre los sectores. Es interesante determinar no sólo la importancia que tiene cada sector en la economía de una región, sino también cómo se relacionan las diferentes ramas productivas a través de los flujos de comercio. Como señala Porter (1987): <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Quotation"><span style="mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">(...) aunque el entorno relevante es muy amplio y abarca tanto fuerzas sociales como económicas, el aspecto clave del entorno de la empresa es el sector o sectores industriales en los cuales compite. La estructura de un sector industrial tiene una fuerte influencia al determinar las reglas del juego competitivas así como las posibilidades estratégicas potencialmente disponibles para la empresa. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Dicho análisis implica un conocimiento profundo de las relaciones intersectoriales, esto es, de las denominadas ligazones específicas.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El enfoque de este trabajo y, que a nuestro juicio es novedoso, consiste en tratar las relaciones existentes entre los sectores de una economía, desde la óptica de las redes sociales, por ello consideramos a las ramas productivas como actores y las relaciones entre ellas estarán representadas por los flujos de mercancías.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Esta aproximación a las relaciones intersectoriales, plantea un esquema más real y completo de su funcionamiento, ya que como sugiere Grannovetter (1985) a través de su teoría de “embeddedness”, toda acción económica no puede ser explicada únicamente a través de móviles individuales, sino que depende también de las relaciones que los individuos mantienen<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[5]</span></span></span></span></a>. Siguiendo este razonamiento, la utilización de las redes sociales permite, de forma simplificada, un conocimiento en detalle del esquema de relaciones de un sector con su entorno, el capital social<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[6]</span></span></span></span></a> en el cual se desarrolla el entramado de sus estrategias empresariales con el resto de agentes económicos. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La red económica establecida se convierte en un cúmulo de oportunidades y limitaciones que influye sobre el comportamiento de los sectores. En este marco, las propias transacciones de las ramas productivas afectan, consecuentemente, a la toma de decisiones de otros sectores, y como tal, la estructura global se ve también transformada. Existe, en suma, un papel interactivo entre la acción o transacciones empresariales realizadas por las ramas consideradas y la estructura, de tal forma que la estructura emergente de la red también influye en el comportamiento de la empresa (Giddens, 1984). El planteamiento de estas relaciones entre los agentes individuales y la estructura como un todo, permite un análisis detallado de las transacciones económicas a nivel micro y macroeconómico, a través de la metodología de las redes sociales.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">3. La consideración de los<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>sectores clave bajo una doble perspectiva: clásica y de teoría de redes<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Un uso común del análisis input-output consiste en establecer qué ramas productivas se consideran como claves, es decir, presentan unos efectos más destacados en el seno del sistema económico regional, cuantificando la intensidad y la relevancia de las ligazones intersectoriales. Con este fin, tradicionalmente, se han venido aplicando los coeficientes de Rasmussen (1956) y Chenery-Watanabe (1958), los cuales a partir de concepto de “eslabonamiento”, introducido por Hirschman (1958) en estudios de desarrollo, permiten agrupar los sectores en cuatro bloques. Para ello, se distinguen los eslabonamientos hacia atrás que se producen cuando una rama productiva utiliza bienes y servicios procedentes de otras; y los eslabonamientos hacia adelante, debidos a que los productos de un sector son utilizados por otros como bienes y servicios en la elaboración de sus productos.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">A partir de la teoría de redes sociales es posible profundizar en el conocimiento de la estructura productiva de una región o nación, determinando aquellos sectores claves mediante la consideración de tres rasgos complementarios que amplían y complementan la visión clásica sobre las ramas polarizadoras del crecimiento. Estas características permiten analizar las relaciones interindustriales bajo un triple enfoque: los efectos totales de un sector sobre el conjunto de la economía, la rapidez con que un sector se relaciona con los demás y la importancia de éstos como elementos trasmisores dentro de la red. Dichos aspectos se recogen dentro del concepto genérico de centralidad, característica que permite analizar las propiedades estructurales y de localización de la red económica.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">En la teoría de redes se considera un actor como importante, si presenta un mayor número de interrelaciones, bien directas o indirectas,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>con el resto de agentes en la red. En este sentido, las ramas productivas que mantienen mayores conexiones gozan de posiciones estructurales más ventajosas en la medida en que presentan un mayor grado relativo de acceso y control sobre los recursos existentes, siendo menos dependientes. A partir de esta noción se identifican los sectores que funcionan en el sistema económico regional a modo de encrucijada, constituyendo elementos conectores cruciales para el funcionamiento e interconexión económica.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Esta óptica de estudio, profundiza y enriquece el conocimiento de la estructura productiva. Plantearemos en este trabajo la determinación de estos rasgos<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>bien a través de las denominadas medidas de centralidad, y alternativamente con técnicas input-output tradicionales.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Según la metodología de las redes, para detectar aquellos sectores con una posición más relevante dentro de la economía se puede aplicar, siguiendo a Friedkin (1991), tres medidas de centralidad denominadas efectos totales, efectos inmediatos y efectos mediativos. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">A pesar de la variedad de indicadores existentes con análoga finalidad<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[7]</span></span></span></span></a>, su elección se ha basado en la similitud de planteamiento con la metodología clásica input-output, lo cual facilita una posterior comparación. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Dentro de la óptica clásica podemos referirnos a los conocidos coeficientes de Rasmussen que permiten determinar aquellos sectores con unos efectos más importantes sobre el conjunto de<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>los agentes económicos de la red, tal y como plantean los efectos totales. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Por otro lado, los coeficientes de Streit identifican aquellas ramas más intensamente relacionadas con el sistema económico, lo cual las convierte en actividades productivas fundamentales para la interconexión del funcionamiento de la red.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">A continuación se expone por separado la identificación de cada una de las tres características mencionadas, bajo los dos enfoques considerados, la metodología clásica y la nueva óptica de la teoría de las redes sociales.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.1. Los efectos directos e indirectos<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La determinación de la intensidad y relevancia de las transacciones interindustriales, bien directas o indirectas, puede ser estimada a partir de los coeficientes de Rasmussen o de los denominados, dentro de las medidas de centralidad, efectos totales. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.1.1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Los coeficientes de Rasmussen<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">En el modelo de Leontief simplificado<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[8]</span></span></span></span></a> los elementos de la denominada matriz inversa de Leontief (<b>I</b>-<b>A</b>)<sup>-1</sup> indican la cuantía en que debe aumentar la producción de un sector i-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésimo</i> para que la demanda final de un sector j-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésimo </i>se incremente en una unidad. A partir de los elementos de esta matriz se pueden obtener coeficientes que recojan la capacidad de generar o absorber crecimiento de los distintos sectores de la economía. Un primer paso en este análisis consiste en considerar las sumas de los elementos de cada fila y columna de dicha matriz, esto es, los denominados efectos absorción (z<sub>i.</sub>)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>y difusión (z<sub>.j</sub> ), respectivamente.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los coeficientes definidos por Rasmussen (1956) se desarrollan sobre la base de estos efectos difusión y absorción y se obtienen calculando, en primer término, un promedio de dichos efectos en cada una de las ramas, para después expresar cada uno de estos promedios en relación a los efectos globales. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El coeficiente de Rasmussen calculado a partir del efecto difusión y conocido por índice de poder de difusión se define como:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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</tbody></table><!--[if gte vml 1]></o:wrapblock><![endif]--><br clear="ALL" style="mso-ignore: vglayout;" /> <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Cuantifica en términos relativos la fuerza con que un sector productivo es capaz de “arrastrar” al conjunto de la economía.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Si nos hubiésemos apoyado en el efecto absorción, habríamos derivado el índice de sensibilidad de absorción cuya expresión, a partir la matriz de coeficientes de distribución<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[9]</span></span></span></span></a>, es:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Permite medir en términos relativos el impacto que recibe un sector ante un crecimiento del total de ramas.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Sobre la base de estos resultados se establece una clasificación en torno a cuatro categorías. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt left 36.0pt 72.0pt 108.0pt 144.0pt 180.0pt 216.0pt 252.0pt 288.0pt 324.0pt 360.0pt 396.0pt 432.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los denominados sectores clave de una economía son aquellos que presentan efectos de arrastre hacia adelante y hacia atrás superiores a la media. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt left 36.0pt 72.0pt 108.0pt 144.0pt 180.0pt 216.0pt 252.0pt 288.0pt 324.0pt 360.0pt 396.0pt 432.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los sectores con efectos de arrastre hacia atrás mayores que la unidad. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt left 36.0pt 72.0pt 108.0pt 144.0pt 180.0pt 216.0pt 252.0pt 288.0pt 324.0pt 360.0pt 396.0pt 432.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Sectores con eslabonamientos hacia adelante sobre la media, ya que una parte elevada de sus productos son vendidos a otras que los utilizan como bienes intermedios generando así ligazones elevadas de oferta. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt left 36.0pt 72.0pt 108.0pt 144.0pt 180.0pt 216.0pt 252.0pt 288.0pt 324.0pt 360.0pt 396.0pt 432.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">d)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los sectores independientes que presentan unos efectos de dispersión y absorción por debajo de la media.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.1.2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Los efectos totales<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">En la teoría de redes sociales, los distintos efectos se determinan a partir de una matriz (<b>A</b>) en la que se recogen las interrelaciones de la red analizada, la cual en el ámbito de nuestro estudio, es la matriz de coeficientes input-output.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Siguiendo a Friedkin (1990), la determinación de los efectos totales intersectoriales está básicamente relacionada con el número y longitud de los caminos existentes entre los distintos sectores a través de las relaciones productivas especificadas, de tal forma que<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[10]</span></span></span></span></a>:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1026"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:284.25pt;height:18.75pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image005.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="25" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image006.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1026" width="379" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1026"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069092"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0<</span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><1<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">donde </span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"> es una ponderación de las influencias intersectoriales que permite calibrar la capacidad de influencia entre sectores. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El aumento del número de pasos a través de los cuales dos sectores se pueden interrelacionar supone una disminución del impacto de sus transacciones, mientras que para igualdad de distancias el efecto ocasionado depende de la intensidad o fuerza de las relaciones existentes (</span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">a<sub>ij</sub>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Partiendo del supuesto más sencillo de ausencia de polarización en la toma de decisiones de los agentes económicos y suponiendo que </span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"> tiende a la unidad <b>V</b> podría converger, según las características de la matriz, a <b>V</b><sub>u</sub> tal que los efectos totales intersectoriales son constantes<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[11]</span></span></span></span></a>:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1027"
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o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="75" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image008.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1027" width="123" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1027"
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</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La base de los efectos totales se podría calcular bajo estas condiciones como<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[12]</span></span></span></span></a>:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1028"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:159.75pt;height:26.25pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image009.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="35" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image010.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1028" width="213" /></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1028"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069094"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">=<b>V</b><sub>u</sub><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los efectos totales de un sector j en la red se recogen en la columna j de la matriz <b>V</b>, de tal forma que el efecto total de centralidad, TEC, se define como:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1029"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:111.75pt;height:48.75pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image011.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="65" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image012.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1029" width="149" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1029"
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</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Es decir, se trata del promedio de los elementos de las columnas de la matriz <b>V</b>, de forma que cuanto mayor sea este valor, mayor fuerza tendrán en el sector los efectos totales respecto al conjunto de la economía.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Complementariamente, razonando de forma análoga a partir de la matriz de coeficientes de distribución, se plantearía un indicador sobre los efectos totales de la red sobre un sector i-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésimo</i>:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1030"
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</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Cuanto mayor sea, mayor será el efecto recibido por un sector ante cambios en la red.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Es relevante notar que todas las medidas señaladas, tanto las que proceden del enfoque clásico como las derivadas de la teoría de las redes sociales, se obtienen a partir de la matriz inversa de Leontief. Es más, podemos considerar los coeficientes de Rasmussen como un caso particular de los derivados de la teoría de redes, donde no se consideran ponderaciones, es decir, se trata de medidas que no tienen en cuenta el factor </span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"> que representa la influencia de los sectores.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">También es preciso señalar que mientras el coeficiente de Rasmussen se encuentra normalizado al estar divididos por el total, no ocurre lo mismo con los efectos totales, sin embargo, la interpretación de ambas<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>medidas es análoga.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">De esta forma, queda demostrada la similitud directa entre ambas medidas en el caso más sencillo de ausencia de polarización y ponderación de las influencias intersectoriales tendente a la unidad. En un análisis más detallado se podría plantear la estimación de este coeficiente de influencia social (</span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">), e incluso su diferenciación entre sectores (</span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">a</span></span><sub><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">i</span></sub><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">), con el fin de distinguir la propensión de una rama productiva a las influencias intersectoriales. Quedaría así establecido el patrón de toma de decisiones empresariales junto con sus elementos dinamizadores del sistema económico.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>La rapidez en la difusión<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La rapidez de transmisión de los efectos totales determinados es una característica interesante en la valoración de la implementación de políticas económicas y sus posibles efectos en el tiempo o en su propagación dentro de la red analizada. Este rasgo se determina, siguiendo la terminología de las redes sociales, a partir de los denominados efectos inmediatos y no ha sido considerado en los estudios tradicionales de input-output, por lo que se trata de una aportación neta de la teoría de redes al análisis estructural.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La rapidez de difusión en la red, una vez obtenidos los efectos totales de un sector j, se puede determinar a través de la longitud media de las secuencias de sus transacciones económicas: <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1037"
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</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">donde <b>D</b> es una matriz diagonal con elementos d<sub>ii</sub>=1/c<sub>i</sub>, <b>E </b>representa una matriz (nxn) unitaria y <b>Z</b> es la denominada matriz fundamental cuya expresión es la que sigue:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><!--[if gte vml 1]><o:wrapblock><v:shape id="_x0000_s1026"
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</div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr> <td height="0" width="204"></td> </tr>
<tr> <td></td> <td><img height="28" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image018.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_s1026" width="121" /></td> </tr>
</tbody></table><!--[if gte vml 1]></o:wrapblock><![endif]--><br clear="ALL" style="mso-ignore: vglayout;" /> <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">tal que <b>A</b></span><sup><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">¥</span></span></sup><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"> coincidirá con la matriz <b>V</b><sub>u</sub> la cual, recoge el estado estacionario del proceso analizado (c<sub>1</sub>,...,c<sub>n</sub>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Y <b>Z</b><sub>dg</sub> es una matriz diagonal construida a partir de la definición de <b>Z</b>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La rapidez con que un sector se relaciona económicamente con otros, se expresa en las columnas respectivas de la matriz <b>M</b>. El indicador de estos efectos inmediatos, IEC, se calcula así como el inverso de la media de las longitudes de las relaciones intersectoriales de una rama productiva j:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="96" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image020.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1036" width="173" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1036"
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</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Donde m<sub>ij</sub> son los elementos de la matriz <b>M</b>. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">A medida que aumenta el valor de la medida expuesta, mayor será la rapidez con la cual se propaguen los efectos totales del sector considerado.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.3. Elementos conectores<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El último de los tres rasgos que se ha considerado definen un sector económico como clave, hace referencia a la importancia de sectores particulares como instrumentos de transmisión de los efectos totales. Son sectores que facilitan el funcionamiento e interconexión económica, vertebrando la interrelación de las distintas actividades productivas. Tales agentes económicos funcionan en el sistema a modo de encrucijada, constituyendo puntos clave para el desarrollo conjunto de la economía.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La cuantificación de la intensidad de estas transacciones industriales en el sistema económico ha constituido además una de las cuestiones recurrentes en la literatura de economía regional. Su cálculo permite calibrar, los efectos de arrastre en el desarrollo y evolución de la región, de tal forma, que aquellas ramas que aparecen como habitualmente interrelacionadas podrían llegar a formar complejos industriales y establecerse juntas en el espacio. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El estudio de la debilidad o fortaleza de las interrelaciones sectoriales puede ser planteado bajo una doble perspectiva: a través de los tradicionales coeficientes de Streit o bien a partir de los efectos mediativos derivados de la noción de centralidad.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.3.1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coeficientes de Streit<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los coeficientes de Streit (1969) permiten analizar, a partir de la matriz de transacciones intermedias (<b>X</b>´), las relaciones sector a sector determinando el grado de interrelación entre dos ramas cualesquiera. Serán considerados sectores muy vinculados, aquellos a los que van o de los que proceden gran parte de los inputs y outputs mutuamente utilizados. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Con esta finalidad, los indicadores denominados ligazones específicas de oferta (LEO<sub>ij</sub>) y de demanda (LED<sub>ij</sub>) para los sectores <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i</i> y <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">j</i> muestran, respectivamente, la proporción en la que la rama i utiliza los productos de la rama <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">j</i> como consumo, o los usos intermedios que la rama <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">j</i> hace de los productos de la rama <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i</i> con respecto al total de inputs intermedios (Muñoz, 1995):<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1035"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:75pt;height:116.25pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image021.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="155" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image022.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1035" width="100" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1035"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069100"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Cambiando el orden de los subíndices se pueden observar las otras dos relaciones entre el par de sectores analizados, esto es, <!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1038"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:63.75pt;height:36pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image023.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="48" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image024.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1038" width="85" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1038"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069101"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]-->.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Este estudio de las ligazones se suele complementar con el cálculo de una medida resumen, formulada a partir de la media aritmética simple de las cuatro ligazones posibles existentes entre dos ramas cualesquiera <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i</i> y <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">j</i>. Formalmente, los denominados coeficientes simétricos de Streit (CS<sub>ij</sub>) toman la expresión siguiente:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1034"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:258.75pt;height:74.25pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image025.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="99" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image026.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1034" width="345" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1034"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069102"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Su análisis permite perfilar los sectores productivos relevantes o polarizadores en el funcionamiento del sistema económico, dada su importancia como demandantes de los productos de otras ramas o como suministradores de inputs intermedios necesarios en la producción de otros sectores.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La posterior identificación de aquellos sectores más intensamente relacionados, no ya con otra rama determinada, sino con el conjunto del sistema económico, se estima a través del coeficiente de ligazón global (CSG<sub>i</sub>):<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="Maintext" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1039"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:80.25pt;height:36pt' o:ole="" fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image027.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="48" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image028.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1039" width="107" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1039"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069103"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Estas ramas intensamente relacionadas, suponen actividades productivas fundamentales para la interconexión del funcionamiento de la economía considerada. Son sectores que funcionan a modo de encrucijada o transmisor dentro de la red. Interpretación idéntica a la de los denominados efectos mediativos. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 35.4pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3.3.2. Efectos mediativos<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La matriz <b>M</b>, planteada con anterioridad, se puede descomponer en el número de pasos desde un sector <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">j</i> a otro <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i</i>, a través de otros intermedios:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoHeader" style="tab-stops: 36.0pt 72.0pt 108.0pt 144.0pt 180.0pt 216.0pt 252.0pt 288.0pt 324.0pt 360.0pt 396.0pt 432.0pt;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><o:wrapblock><v:shape
id="_x0000_s1027" type="#_x0000_t75" style='position:absolute;left:0;
text-align:left;margin-left:162pt;margin-top:0;width:119pt;height:41pt;
z-index:2' o:allowincell="f"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image029.wmz"
o:title=""/> <w:wrap type="topAndBottom"/> </v:shape><![if gte mso 9]><o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3"
ShapeID="_x0000_s1027" DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069104"> </o:OLEObject> <![endif]><![endif]--><span style="mso-ignore: vglayout;"> </span><br />
</div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr> <td height="0" width="216"></td> </tr>
<tr> <td></td> <td><img height="55" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image030.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_s1027" width="159" /></td> </tr>
</tbody></table><!--[if gte vml 1]></o:wrapblock><![endif]--><br clear="ALL" style="mso-ignore: vglayout;" /> <span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Donde t<sub>(j)ik</sub> es la ik- ésima celda de la matriz <b>T</b> en:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"><sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
id="_x0000_i1040" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:84pt;height:21pt' o:ole=""> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image031.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="28" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image032.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1040" width="112" /></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1040"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069105"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Y <b>A</b><sub>(j)</sub> es la matriz resultante de eliminar la j-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésim</i>a fila y columna de la matriz <b>A</b>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Los efectos mediativos indican la importancia de un sector j-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésimo</i> como trasmisor o como punto de encrucijada para la conexión de la red económica:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
id="_x0000_i1033" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:87pt;height:48.75pt' o:ole=""
fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image033.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="65" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image034.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1033" width="116" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1033"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069106"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Donde,<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
id="_x0000_i1032" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:120pt;height:54.75pt' o:ole=""
fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image035.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="73" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image036.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1032" width="160" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.2" ShapeID="_x0000_i1032"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069108"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">recoge la contribución de un sector j-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésimo</i> en trasmitir los efectos intersectoriales de la rama<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">k</i>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El objetivo común de ambas técnicas consiste en cuantificar la relevancia de las ligazones intersectoriales de estas dos medidas presentadas, aunque el planteamiento matemático difiera notablemente. Sin embargo, los efectos mediativos permiten un análisis más completo que los coeficientes de Streit, ya que no sólo recogen las relaciones directas entre los diferentes sectores sino también las indirectas. Se trata, por tanto, de un indicador más rico sobre la intensidad de las transacciones totales. La consideración de los efectos inmediatos permitirá añadir además al estudio cuestiones sobre la rapidez de difusión de los efectos totales considerados, a través de la longitud media de las secuencias de sus transacciones económicas. Rasgos esenciales para profundizar en el conocimiento de los impactos de una política económica.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">4. Análisis de caso: estudio estructural de la economía asturiana<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">La comparación de los resultados obtenidos al analizar las relaciones interindustriales de una determinada región o país, bajo la óptica de la teoría de las redes sociales y la aplicación de los métodos input-output clásicos, ofrece una visión práctica del grado de similitud de las técnicas planteadas.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">En este trabajo, hemos desarrollado con esta finalidad, el estudio de la estructura económica asturiana a partir la matriz de Asturias correspondiente al 2000, por tratarse ésta de la última publicada<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[13]</span></span></span></span></a>, a un nivel de desagregación de 16 sectores. Además, hemos considerado los coeficientes totales, ya que así se tienen en cuenta tanto las relaciones interiores como los flujos de importación.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">En la determinación de la relevancia de las transacciones intersectoriales, bien directas o indirectas, tradicionalmente los coeficientes de Rasmussen establecen una clasificación en cuatro categorías de los sectores analizados. En el caso de la economía asturiana los resultados son mostrados en el siguiente Cuadro:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoHeading8" style="margin-left: 0cm; text-align: center; text-indent: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Cuadro Nº1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coeficientes de Rasmussen<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
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</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 15.15pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 191.35pt;" valign="top" width="255"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1041" type="#_x0000_t75"
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</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 15.15pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 191.35pt;" valign="top" width="255"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1042" type="#_x0000_t75"
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
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o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="24" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image042.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1043" width="48" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1043"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069111"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 191.35pt;" valign="top" width="255"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 14.15pt; mso-hyphenate: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center; text-indent: -14.15pt;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">I. <span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Sectores clave<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">(4) (7) (8)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 191.35pt;" valign="top" width="255"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 14.15pt; mso-hyphenate: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center; text-indent: -14.15pt;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">II. </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Sectores con arrastre hacia adelante<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">(1) (2)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 42.55pt;" valign="top" width="57"> <div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
id="_x0000_i1044" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:36pt;height:18pt' o:ole=""
fillcolor="window"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image043.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="24" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image044.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1044" width="48" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1044"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069112"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 191.35pt;" valign="top" width="255"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">III. Sectores con arrastre hacia atrás<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">(3) (5) (6) (9) (10)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 191.35pt;" valign="top" width="255"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-hyphenate: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">IV. Sectores independientes<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">(11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
</tbody></table></div><div align="center" class="Ciudadyprovincia" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; page-break-after: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; letter-spacing: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Fuente: Elaboración propia a partir TIOA-2000.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Se denominan sectores claves de una economía a aquellos que presentan efectos de arrastre hacia delante y hacia atrás superiores a la media, entre ellos podemos señalar a los sectores Industria química (4), Industria transformadora de los metales (7) y Otras industrias manufactureras (8). Aquellas ramas que pueden ser consideradas como “impulsoras importantes de la economía regional” al gozar de fuertes efectos de arrastre hacia delante, son<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Agricultura y pesca (1) e Industrias extractivas (2).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sin embargo, las ramas Alimentación, bebidas y tabaco (3), Otros productos minerales no metálicos (5), Metalurgia y productos metálicos (6), Energía eléctrica, gas y agua (9) y Construcción (10), dados los elevados efectos de otros sectores sobre las mismas, pueden llegar a generar posibles estrangulamientos del sistema económico, lo que las sitúa como ramas estratégicas para el desarrollo económico. Y por último, los sectores que no se encuadran en ninguna de las tres categorías anteriores y que se denominan independientes, son sectores poco importantes dado que ni provocan efectos de arrastre en la economía, ni reaccionan de forma significativa ante variaciones de la demanda de los agentes considerados. Si consideramos la distribución porcentual de los sectores en las categorías consideradas, se puede apreciar que los sectores estratégicos representa un 31% del total, los impulsores un 13% y los claves un 19%, tal y como queda reflejado en el Gráfico Nº1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoBodyText" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;">Gráfico Nº1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Distribución sectorial <o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoBodyText" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1031"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:365.25pt;height:158.25pt' o:ole=""> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image045.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="211" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image046.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1031" width="487" /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Excel.Chart.8" ShapeID="_x0000_i1031"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069113"> <o:WordFieldCodes>\s</o:WordFieldCodes> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><span style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: center; text-indent: 35.4pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Fuente: Elaboración propia a partir de TIOA-2000.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">La óptica aportada por la teoría de las redes sociales, permite estimar estos efectos totales de las relaciones intersectoriales directas e indirectas, a través de diversas medidas posicionales. El Cuadro Nº 2, expuesto a continuación, muestra lo resultados de este indicador junto con las otras dos medidas de centralidad desarrolladas por Friedkin (1990), los efectos inmediatos y los efectos mediativos:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-left: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Cuadro Nº2. Medidas de centralidad<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div align="center"> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; width: 582px;"><tbody>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"> <td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><br />
</div></td> <td colspan="2" nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 132.3pt;" valign="top" width="176"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Efectos totales<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Efectos inmediatos<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Efectos mediativos<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Sectores<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">C<sub>TEC(i)<o:p></o:p></sub></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">C<sub>TEC(j)<o:p></o:p></sub></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">C<sub>IEC(j)<o:p></o:p></sub></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">C<sub>MEC(j)<o:p></o:p></sub></span></b><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,032<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,029<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,013<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,322<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">2<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,017<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,089<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,082<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,630<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">3<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,076<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,015<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,009<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,254<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">4<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,017<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,081<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,062<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,582<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">5<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,013<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,022<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,018<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,343<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">6<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,161<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,065<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,044<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,505<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">7<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,054<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,068<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,050<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,538<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">8<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,023<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,063<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,040<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,497<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">9<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,028<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,049<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,040<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,497<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">10<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,206<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,073<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,053<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,549<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">11<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,048<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,042<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,040<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,501<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">12<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,058<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,009<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,008<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,235<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 14;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">13<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,040<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,077<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,062<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,577<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 15;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">14<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,110<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,307<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,126<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,671<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 16;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">15<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,079<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,002<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,002<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,063<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 17;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">16<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,037<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,010<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,009<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,236<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 18; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 64.5pt;" valign="top" width="86"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Promedio<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt;" valign="top" width="92"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,063<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.45pt;" valign="top" width="85"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,063<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 121.05pt;" valign="top" width="161"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,041<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 118.75pt;" valign="top" width="158"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,438<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
</tbody></table></div><div align="center" class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Fuente: Elaboración propia a partir de TIOA-2000.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Obsérvese que si se decide extrapolar la catalogación planteada por los coeficientes de Rasmussen, la distribución porcentual de la categorías -Gráfico Nº 1- se mantiene, si bien el reparto subyacente difiere notablemente.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>La existencia de un factor corrector <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
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o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="23" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image048.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1045" width="25" /></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1045"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069114"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>de la capacidad de influencia intersectorial recogida a través de los coeficientes input-output, se muestra lógicamente como un elemento perturbador que permitiría recoger la sensibilidad de los sectores a la posición estructural desarrollada por los mismos, aspecto no considerado hasta ahora en este sentido en el análisis clásico input-output. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Si nos centramos en los efectos desarrollados por las ramas j-<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ésimas</i>, los sectores clave bajo la perspectiva tradicional, esto es, Industria química (4), Industria transformadora de los metales (7) y Otras industrias manufactureras (8), presentan análogamente unos elevados efectos en<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>el conjunto de los tres indicadores analizados. Su posición de centralidad en la red económica, les permite trasmitir unos importantes efectos totales sobre el conjunto de la economía con relativa rapidez, jugando un papel clave en la intermediación de las relaciones intersectoriales del resto de agentes productivos. Estas características se extienden además básicamente al siguiente conjunto de ramas productivas: Industrias extractivas (2), Metalurgia y productos metálicos (6), Construcción (10), Transporte y comunicaciones (13) y Servicios financieros y empresariales (14). En contraposición, los sectores Comercio y reparación (11), Hostelería (12), Educación, sanidad y servicios sociales (15) y Otros servicios (16) –sectores independientes en el Cuadro Nº1-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>poseen una posición menos central y por tanto, unos menores efectos posibles sobre la red económica configurada. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">El principio de transmisión desarrollado a través del último de estos indicadores de centralidad considerados –efectos mediativos- constituye una cuestión clave para el desarrollo conjunto de una economía, compartida por los denominados coeficientes de Streit.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">A partir del Cuadro Nº 3, se puede determinar una ordenación jerárquica de las actividades productivas en función de la intensidad de su acción polarizadora estimada a través de los mencionados coeficientes de Streit<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftn14" name="_ftnref14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[14]</span></span></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-left: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Cuadro Nº 3. Coeficiente de Ligazón Global<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div align="center"> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; margin-left: -228.5pt; width: 534px;"><tbody>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"> <td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Sectores<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">CSGi<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Agricultura y pesca (1)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,904<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Industrias extractivas (2)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,942<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Alimentación, bebidas y tabaco (3)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1,127<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Industria química (4)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,999<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Otros productos minerales no metálicos (5)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,727<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Metalurgia y productos metálicos (6)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1,319<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Industria transformadora de los metales (7)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,982<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Otras industrias manufactureras (8)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,909<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Energía eléctrica, gas y agua (9)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,951<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Construcción (10)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1,275<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Comercio y reparación (11)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,950<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Hostelería (12)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,769<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Transporte y comunicaciones (13)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1,001<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 14;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Servicios financieros y empresariales (14)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1,585<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 15;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Educación, sanidad y servicios sociales (15)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,842<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 16;"> <td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Otros servicios (16)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">0,718<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 17; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 263.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="352"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Promedio<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div></td> <td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 136.2pt;" valign="bottom" width="182"> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-hyphenate: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">1<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></td> </tr>
</tbody></table></div><div align="center" class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Fuente: Elaboración propia a partir de TIOA-2000.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="BodyText2" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Por encima del nivel medio, se sitúan Alimentación, bebidas y tabaco (3), Metalurgia y productos metálicos (6), Construcción (10), Transporte y comunicaciones (13) y Servicios financieros y empresariales (14), ramas que, a excepción de la primera, presentan análogamente efectos mediativos elevados. El resto de sectores con efectos trasmisores significativos, tales como Industrias extractivas (2), Industria química (4), Industria transformadora de los metales (7) y<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Otras industrias manufactureras (8), se localizan muy próximas a este punto de corte medio.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="tab-stops: 121.5pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;">De esta forma, con fundamentos y objetivos comparables a las técnicas clásicas, queda establecida empíricamente la similitud entre ambas metodologías, si bien la incorporación de los conceptos desarrollados bajo la teoría de las redes sociales permiten ampliar el espectro del estudio estructural desarrollado. La posible estimación de la ponderación a aplicar en la estimación de los efectos totales <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
id="_x0000_i1046" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:18.75pt;height:17.25pt'
o:ole=""> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image049.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="23" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image048.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1046" width="25" /></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1046"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069115"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]-->, la rapidez a través de la cual se difunden los efectos totales, y la inclusión de las relaciones indirectas en la estimación de la transmisión de los mismos, son aspectos no considerados en la concepción tradicional de la metodología input-output clásica, que resultan de interés en el universo económico planteado.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="tab-stops: 121.5pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">5. Conclusiones<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">El análisis de los rasgos estructurales de una economía es un aspecto fundamental para la comprensión de su funcionamiento. La teoría de las redes sociales muestra una gran potencialidad en este sentido, al permitir una notable simplificación del esquema de relaciones intersectoriales contenido en una tabla input-output. Su utilización posibilita un conocimiento en detalle de las relaciones de un sector con su entorno, en el cual desarrolla el entramado de sus estrategias empresariales con el resto de agentes económicos.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Un aspecto importante en los estudios económicos es el análisis estructural. Pretendemos que este documento sea el primer paso en la reformulación del análisis estructural input-output a partir de la teoría de las redes sociales y, para ello, proponemos una visión alternativa de los indicadores clásicos en el estudio de ramas clave en la economía. A partir de la óptica de las redes, la determinación de la posición de los sectores en la estructura económica a través de medidas de centralidad, establece la influencia e importancia de los mismos en la configuración de las transacciones bajo un nuevo enfoque enriquecedor.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Con fundamentos y objetivos comparables a las técnicas clásicas, la consideración de tres rasgos complementarios para su estimación- efectos totales, inmediatos y mediativos – aporta características esenciales que permiten profundizar en el conocimiento del funcionamiento interno de la estructura económica analizada. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Frente a la metodología clásica, surge una nueva óptica que constituye una ampliación del esquema de relaciones observable en una tabla input-ouput.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Si bien, los coeficientes clásicos de Rasmussen y los de Streit, se han empleado tradicionalmente para determinar, respectivamente, los sectores clave y las ramas fuertemente interrelacionadas, las medidas de centralidad muestran una capacidad superior para representar la realidad económica. No sólo aportan la rapidez de difusión de los efectos estimados, característica ausente en los indicadores tradicionales; además permiten una ponderación más exacta de las posibles influencias a través del coeficiente <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1047" type="#_x0000_t75"
style='width:12pt;height:11.25pt' o:ole=""> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\SELAVA~1.SEL\CONFIG~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image050.wmz"
o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><img height="15" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/SELAVA~1.SEL/CONFIG~1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image051.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1047" width="16" /></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.3" ShapeID="_x0000_i1047"
DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1318069116"> </o:OLEObject> </xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>en la expansión de los efectos totales, y la consideración de las relaciones indirectas, no incluidas en la estimación de los coeficientes de Streit, en la determinación de los sectores intensamente relacionados a través de los efectos mediativos. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">6. Bibliografía<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Álvarez, Rubén, García, A. S. y Ramos, C. (2001). “Análisis estructural de la economía asturiana: algunas alternativas”, XV Reunión de ASEPELT España, La Coruña.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Artís, Manuel, Suriñach, J. y Pons, J. (1993). Caracterización de la industria catalana a partir de la tabla Input-Output de 1987, Documento de Trabajo, Departamento de Econometría, Estadística y Economía Española, Universidad de Barcelona. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Bonacich, Phillip (1987). “Power and centrality: A family of measures”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">American Journal of Sociology</i>, Vol. 92, nº 5, pp. 1170-1182.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Burt, Ronald. (1987). “Social Contagion and Innovation: Cohesion versus Structural Equivalence”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">American Journal of Sociology</i>, Vol. 92, nº 5, pp. 1287-1335.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Chenery, Hollis. y Watanabe, T. (1958). “International comparisons of the structure of production”. </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Econometrica</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">, nº 4, Vol. 26.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Domínguez, José María y Prado, C. (2000). Articulación interna de la economía vasca en el período 1990-1995, Informe nº 1171, EUSTAT.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Freeman, Linton. (1978/79). “Centrality in Social Networks. Conceptual Clarification”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Social Networks</i>, nº 1, pp. 215-239.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Friedkin, Noah. (1991). “Theoretical Foundations for Centrality Measures”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">American Journal of Sociology</i>, Vol. 96, nº 6, mayo, pp.1478-1504.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Friedkin, Noah y Johnsen, E. (1990). “Social Influence and Opinions”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Journal of Mathematical Sociology</i>, Vol. 15, nº 3-4, mayo, pp.193-205.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">García, Ana Salomé y Ramos, C. (2001). “Análisis de la realidad económica asturiana: un enfoque desde la teoría de grafos”, XXVII Reunión de Estudios Regionales, Madrid.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">García, Ana Salomé, Muñiz, M. y Ramos, C. (2002). “Análisis de la estructura productiva regional desde la óptica de la equivalencia estructural”, XXVIII Reunión de Estudios Regionales, Murcia.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Giddens, Anthony (1984). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Constitution of Society: Outline of the Theory of</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Structuration</i>. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">California</st1:placename></st1:place> Press, Berkeley.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Grannovetter, Mark (1985). “Economic action and social structure: The problem of embeddedness”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">American Journal of Sociology</i>, Vol. 78, nº 6, pp. 1360-1380.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Hanneman, Robert (2000). </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Introducción a los métodos de análisis de redes sociales</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">, disponible en versión electrónica en <a href="" name="_Hlt12173995"></a><a href="http://www.redes-sociales.net/"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlt12173995;">http://www.redes-sociales.net/</span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlt12173995;"></span></a><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Hirschman, Albert (1958). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Strategy of Economic Development</i>. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Yale</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype></st1:place> Press, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New Haven</st1:place></st1:city>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Leontief, Wassily. (1951). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The structure of the American Economy 1919-1929</i>. </span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Oxford University Press, New York.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">López, Ana María y Pulido, A. (1993). “Análisis de las interrelaciones sectoriales en España”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Economía Industrial</i>, Marzo-Abril, pp. 167-178.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Molina, José Luis (2000a). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">El análisis de redes sociales. Aplicación al estudio de la cultura en las organizaciones</i>. Tesis doctoral. Barcelona: UAB.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Molina, José Luis, Muñoz, J. y Losego, P. (2000b). “Red y realidad: aproximación análisis de Redes científicas”, VII Congreso Nacional de Psicología Social, Oviedo.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Molina, José Luis (2000c). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">El análisis de redes sociales. Una introducción</i>. Barcelona, Edicions Bellaterra.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Morillas, Antonio (1983). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">La teoría de grafos en el análisis Input-Output. La</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">estructura productiva andaluza</i>. Editorial Universidad de Málaga, Málaga.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Muñoz, Candido (1988). “Elaboración y utilización de las tablas input-output regionales”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Papeles de Economía Española</i>, nº 35, pp. 457-467.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Muñoz, Candido (1994). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Las cuentas de la nación. Nueva Introducción a la Economía Aplicada.</i> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Editorial <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Civitas</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">Madrid</st1:state></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Nohria, Nitin, y Eccles, R. (1992). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Networks and Organizations. Structure,</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Form and Action</i>. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Harvard</st1:placename> <st1:placename w:st="on">Business</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">School</st1:placetype></st1:place> Press, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Boston</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">Mass.</st1:state></st1:place><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Pardo, Ana y Rodríguez, P. (2000). “Sectores clave de la economía castellano leonesa 1995”. Análisis input-output, XIV Reunión de ASEPELT España, Oviedo.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Pérez, Manuel A. y Martínez, S. (1995). “Industrias clave en la economía Asturiana. Análisis a través de las Tablas Input-Output de 1978, 1985 y 1990”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Revista Asturiana de Economía</i>, nº 3, pp. 249-274.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Porter, Michael (1987). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Estrategia competitiva. Técnicas para el análisis de los sectores industriales de la competencia</i>. Compañía Editorial Continental, S.A., México.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Pulido, Antonio y Fontela, E. (1993). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Análisis Input-Output. Modelos, Datos y</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aplicaciones</i>. </span><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Ediciones Pirámide</span></st1:city><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">, <st1:state w:st="on">Madrid</st1:state></span></st1:place><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Rasmussen, P. Noregaard (1956). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Studies in Intersectoral Relation</i>. <st1:place w:st="on">North Holland</st1:place>, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Amsterdam</st1:place></st1:city>. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Rauch, James y Casella, A. (2001). </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Networks and Markets</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">. Russel Sage Foundation, <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">SADEI (2003). Marco input-output de Asturias, disponible en versión electrónica en <a href="http://www.sadei.es/">http://www.sadei.es</a> <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Streit, Manfred E. (1969). “Spatial Associations and Economic Linkages between industries”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Journal of Regional Science</i>, Vol.9, nº 2, pp.177-88.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES;">Uriel, Ezequiel. (1997). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Contabilidad nacional</i>. Ariel Economía, Barcelona.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Uzzi, Brian. (2001). “Knowledge Spillover in Corporate Financing Networks: Embeddedness, Network Transitivity and Trade Credit Performance”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Strategic Management Journal</i>, Vol.23, Nº 7, pp. 595-618.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="Maintext"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Wasserman, Stanley. y Faust, K. (1994). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Social Network Analysis. Methods</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and Applications, Structural Analysis in the Social Sciences</i>. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Cambridge</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype></st1:place> Press, <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><br clear="all" /> <hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /> <div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"> Enviar correspondencia a: Ana Salomé García Muñiz (<a href="mailto:asgarcia@correo.uniovi.es)">asgarcia@correo.uniovi.es<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlt12169003;">)</span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlt12169003;"></span></a><a href="" name="_Hlt12169003"></a>; Carmen Ramos Carvajal (<a href="mailto:cramos@correo.uniovi.es)">cramos@correo.uniovi.es)</a>. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[2]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"> Estos coeficientes clásicos han sido frecuentemente utilizados en numerosos estudios, así por ejemplo, podemos señalar los trabajos de Artís y otros (1993), López y Pulido (1993), Pérez y Martínez (1995) o Domínguez y Prado (2000), entre otros.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[3]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"> Anteriormente existían ya aplicaciones sobre organización industrial y teoría de juegos a nivel de empresas individuales.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[4]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"> Esta cita ha sido obtenida de la versión electrónica de Hanneman (2000): Introducción a los métodos de análisis de redes sociales, disponible en la dirección <a href="http://www.redes-sociales.net/">http://www.redes-sociales.net/</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 2.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 2.0pt;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[5]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana;"> Esta teoría explica como mecanismos informales de confianza y expectativas de comportamiento cooperativo surgen entre las relaciones empresariales y facilitan la transferencia de recursos entre agentes económicos (Uzzi, 2001).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 24.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 24.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: 2.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 2.0gd;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[6]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ver una introducción al concepto de capital social en Molina et.al. (2000b), la cual supone una adaptación del epígrafe existente, como cita el autor, en Molina (2000a).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 24.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 24.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: 2.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 2.0gd;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[7]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> Otros conocidos índices de centralidad son la intermediación, la cercanía, lejanía y el índice de poder de Bonacich, por ejemplo.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-hyphenate: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[8]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Una tabla input-output recoge las relaciones existentes entre los diferentes sectores, asimismo proporciona información sobre la demanda final y los inputs primarios de la economía. Dado que se trata de una matriz podemos aproximarnos a su estudio a partir de las filas o de las columnas. En el primer caso, es decir, si consideramos las filas, y partiendo del modelo simplificado de Leontief, podemos escribir: <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-hyphenate: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;">X</span></b><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;">=<b>AX</b>+<b>Y</b><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD;">donde <b>X</b> representa el vector de outputs totales, <b>A</b> corresponde a la matriz de coeficientes técnicos cuyos elementos se obtienen dividiendo los flujos intersectoriales entre los totales de las columnas e <b>Y</b> representa la demanda final. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div class="MsoBodyText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-indent: 35.45pt;"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD;">Por lo tanto, operando se tiene que:</span><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD;"> </span><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 24.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 24.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: 2.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 2.0gd; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">X</span></b><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">=(<b>I</b>-<b>A</b>)<sup>-1</sup><b>Y</b><o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[9]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> Los coeficientes de distribución se obtienen dividiendo los elementos de la matriz de flujos intersectoriales entre el total de cada fila.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[10]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Esta matriz de efectos intersectoriales totales (<b>V</b>) cumple diversas propiedades entre las cuales podemos señalar que es una matriz estocástica por filas: <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt;"><sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600"
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</div><div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 24.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 24.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: 2.0gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 2.0gd;"><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[11]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> Esta circunstancia se produce en aquellos casos en los cuales la matriz considerada es conexa y regular, es decir en términos de grafos o cadenas de Markov, sus elementos se encuentran relacionados bien directa o indirectamente y alguna de las potencias de la matriz presenta únicamente elementos positivos.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[12]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> Ver dicha formulación en Friedkin y Johnsen (1990).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[13]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Para llevar a cabo este análisis utilizaremos la información recogida en la TIO de Asturias correspondiente al año 2000. Véase SADEI (2003, pendiente de publicación). Disponible electrónicamente en la página web de la Sociedad Asturiana de Estudios Económicos e Industriales<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(<a href="http://www.sadei.es/">www.sadei.es</a>). <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div><div id="ftn14" style="mso-element: footnote;"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/SeLaVaL2006.SELAVAL/Mis%20documentos/eMule%20Downloads/Incoming/Las%20redes%20sociales%20como%20heramienta%20de%20an%C3%A1lisis%20estructural%20imput-output.doc#_ftnref14" name="_ftn14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: ES-TRAD; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ES;">[14]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="ES-TRAD" style="font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Verdana; mso-ansi-language: ES; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Dado que los coeficientes de Streit se estiman como una media de proporciones relativas o, ligazones específicas, sin ponderación de ningún tipo, el coeficiente de ligazón global no debe interpretarse como una medida de la importancia cuantitativa de los complejos industriales, sino como un indicador cualitativo de su coherencia interna. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div></div></div>Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1238119374917987605.post-41369301996701743222009-10-13T20:59:00.000-07:002009-10-13T20:59:12.607-07:00The IMF's Growing Powers<h3>The IMF's Growing Powers </h3><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="author-table"><tbody>
<tr><th>Interviewee: </th><td class="authors"><div class="name">Edwin Truman, Senior Fellow, Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics</div></td></tr>
<tr><th>Interviewer: </th><td class="authors"><div class="name">Roya Wolverson, Staff Writer, CFR.org</div></td></tr>
</tbody></table>October 6, 2009<br />
<div class="cms"><img alt="Edwin M. Truman" class="imgleft" src="http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/images/truman.jpg" />The late September G-20 summit in Pittsburgh <a href="http://www.pittsburghsummit.gov/mediacenter/129639.htm" target="_blank">called for</a> the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to take on a major role in "promoting global financial stability and rebalancing growth." But <a href="http://www.iie.com/staff/author_bio.cfm?author_id=122" target="_blank">Edwin M. Truman</a>, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, says the IMF will need to reform how it is governed to increase its influence with member countries, and those reforms could take years.<strong> </strong>Truman also says the IMF isn't likely to boost its currency, the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm" target="_blank">Special Drawing Rights</a>, to a global reserve currency anytime soon, since countries like China won't support a drastic shift in the short term that puts "constraints on their own policies."<br />
<strong>The outcome of the G-20 summit gave the IMF a role in overseeing individual countries' efforts to revive the global economy, but the specifics have been left for the annual meetings [October 6 and 7] in Istanbul. What do you expect to come out of the meetings?</strong><br />
There are two aspects. One is the IMF's role in the global economy. Then there's the IMF governance reform aspect. I actually don't, on either of them, expect much to come out of Istanbul. Broadly, one would expect that the IMF would embrace essentially the components in the Pittsburgh statement: the need for balanced growth and so forth and the IMF's role in monitoring that process. Istanbul is being asked to sort of bless the overall framework and specifically the IMF's role in that framework and the compliance of it.<br />
<strong>So what would the IMF be doing to implement that framework and oversee compliance?</strong><br />
They would take whatever the framework that the G-20 finance ministers come up with and see whether they're consistent and what the implications would be for the functioning of the global economy. For example, one of the big issues has to do with the balance between [countries'] domestic demand and [their] total output, and if total output is increasing rapidly and domestic demand is not, then that means the country is going to go into current account surplus. If every [country] puts that down on a piece of paper, then things don't add up. That would be sort of a consistency check. Or [the IMF] might have the view as to whether plans for fiscal or monetary normalization were appropriately calibrated in terms of amounts and speeds. That would be more of an overall appropriateness standard. The test really is how aggressive [the IMF's management and staff] are in discharging the responsibilities that have been put to them.<br />
<strong>Is being a check on consistency or appropriateness a new role for the IMF?</strong><br />
Yes and no. It has done some of this in the past, at least in principle, when it meets with the G7 countries, though it has tended to take countries' current policies or the [fund's] understanding of current policy and run the same exercises. This [new role] is an extension in the sense that it has a little more focus on intentions.<br />
<div class="pullquote_left"> "[The IMF] has gone from a $250 billion institution to a $1 trillion institution. So the fund is a much more relevant and central institution than it was three years ago."<br />
</div><strong>What power does the IMF have to influence countries' intentions?</strong><br />
The fund would be a participant in what they call a peer review process. To the extent that that [the fund] suggested that the United States or Germany or China policies are out of line or the overall policies are out of line, then [the G-20] would have a discussion about that. Everything is tricky because you're dealing with sovereign nations, especially to the extent that you're focusing on the balance between domestic demand and foreign demand. You're also talking about exchange rates, and the big question is whether the fund will be more or less aggressive in saying that China, for example, should let its exchange rate appreciate more rapidly given that surpluses are rising rapidly. The question is whether the countries will listen to the fund. They've invited the fund in, so that means they have some sort of obligation to at least listen more than they've done in the past. Let's not be naïve; it's not going to lead to, say, the president of the United States or the secretary of the treasury the first time they go through this saying six months from now, "Oh gee, you're right. Well, I'll rush back to Washington and change our budgetary policy." But it will reinforce the pressures that already exist within the United States to move in that direction.<br />
<strong>Countries like Brazil and China are calling for a reapportionment of voting rights at the IMF. What steps would need to be taken to create a better balance of power in governing the IMF?</strong><br />
The G-20 agreed in Pittsburgh that there should be a shift of 5 percentage points of voting from the overrepresented countries to the underrepresented countries. Now there are a lot of ways of looking at that. The question is how they will sort that process out, of identifying who is overrepresented and who is underrepresented now. The second question is how do you correct this? One way, and that was what was done in 2008, is a general increase in what's called basic votes. Every country gets the same votes, a sort of one country, one vote policy, if you want to think about it that way, and then [countries get] another set of votes that are based upon the size of their quota [their financial contribution to the fund]. So, you could just increase [the votes], give them a larger quota, or you could increase everybody's quota but increase [the underrepresented countries'] more.<br />
<strong>What's the likelihood of these reforms actually happening?</strong><br />
They're not going to take place in Istanbul. The first issue is whether the broader membership of the fund and in the International Monetary and Financial Committee embraces what was agreed upon in Pittsburgh. This will be a negotiation that will take place probably over the next year. Since they have a deadline of January 2011, they've got to have it all pretty much all signed, sealed, and delivered by a year from now. They have this question about representation on the executive board and then they also have the issue about the process by which they go about choosing the heads of the IMF and the World Bank. They're sort of 75 percent of the way to saying it should be a completely open process, but they haven't used [that process] yet and won't use it for a while. And then it would all have to be ratified, and one of the issues here is that they went through this [ratification] already in a fairly long and drawn-out process that ended in April of last year. Most countries, not including the United States, but most countries, have not ratified decisions made in 2008.<br />
<strong>So if the IMF does give the developing world more voting rights, does that increase or decrease the fund's influence in the global financial architecture?</strong><br />
Traditional industrial countries have 60 percent of the votes now, and everybody else--emerging market countries and poor developing countries--have 40. So if you shift 10 percentage points of the votes, would you say that's a lot or a little? I would argue it's symbolically important. It doesn't mean that we've turned over the management of the IMF to China and India, but we have given China, India, Brazil, Korea, and Mexico a lot more say. And that makes them more receptive to or encouraging of the fund's criticisms of countries' policies.<br />
<div class="pullquote_right"> "The question is whether the countries will listen to the fund. They've invited the fund in, so that means they have some sort of obligation to at least listen more than they've done in the past."<br />
</div><strong>Some said the financial crisis threatened to render the IMF irrelevant. Is it gaining or losing power now?</strong><br />
In the first year of the crisis, the fund was not particularly there. No one was borrowing, although they were pretty proactive in their advice, but not a lot of countries were listening. A year ago, the fund got very much more involved. Its resources have been vastly augmented, and they've promised further increases in resources. It has made $160 billion in financial commitments since last September. It has gone from a $250 billion institution to a $1 trillion institution. That is recognition that the fund has an important role to play on the financing side and a bigger set of responsibilites to manage, coordinate, and promote cooperation on economic policies. So the fund is a much more relevant and central institution than it was three years ago.<br />
<strong>Would the IMF try to replace the role of U.S. dollar as a global currency reserve with its new currency, the Special Drawing Rights (SDR)?</strong><br />
The IMF is us, meaning all of us, not just the United States, but 185 countries. My view is that very few of the 185 countries, and probably not even China itself, want to do that because the constraints on their own policies would get very tight. If you want to have a really tight system, like what existed under Bretton Woods, which was all based on gold, you can do that [with SDRs] but the system would have to have some adjustment process. You can't have countries running huge deficits all the time as much as they want or hold huge surpluses as much as they want or the system breaks down.<br />
<strong>The IMF recently approved the sale of 400 tons of gold reserves to boost its lending to poor countries. What impact will this have on developing countries?</strong><br />
The principal use of the gold is to create an endowment on which the fund could earn income to pay its administrative expenses, because traditionally the fund has financed its operations and staff out of its lending operations. The spread between the borrowing rate and the lending rate generates income, which is used to pay the staff. Although lending is an important function of the fund, it's not everything. So what they're doing is creating an endowment that will help pay for their public goods expenditures. Then there will probably be some extra income used to underwrite some of the lending or pay down some of the cost of lending to the poorest countries. But it's a relatively small component of the total package.<br />
</div>Weigh in on this issue by emailing <a href="mailto:letters@cfr.org">CFR.org</a>.Social Dinamics Projecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12765875769108489621noreply@blogger.com0